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Fiscal multipliers in a small euro area economy: How big can they get in crisis times?

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Abstract
Using PESSOA, a small open economy DSGE model, we analyze the size of short-runfiscal multipliers associated with fiscal consolidation under two distinct alternative scenarios, viz "normal times" and "crisis times." The crisis times scenario embodies a higher share of hand-to-mouth households, stronger nominal rigidities, and more severe financial frictions, which purportedly better refflect the underlying economic environment during the "Great Recession." Results show that fiscal multipliers can be twice as large in crisis times, being approximately 2 for a government consumptionbased fiscal consolidation in the first year. One-year ahead effects are also substantially larger if this type of consolidation is performed in crisis times. Revenue-based fiscal consolidations are also more recessive in crisis times, though the differences against normal times are less pronounced.

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  • Gabriela Castro & José R. Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2013. "Fiscal multipliers in a small euro area economy: How big can they get in crisis times?," Working Papers w201311, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201311
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    Cited by:

    1. José R. Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2017. "Output in the Portuguese post-2008 period: A general equilibrium narrative," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. José R. Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2017. "The Portuguese post-2008 period: A narrative from an estimated DSGE model," Working Papers w201715, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Gabriela Castro & José R. Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2013. "Inside PESSOA -A Detailed Description of the Model," Working Papers w201316, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    4. Jasmin Sin, 2016. "The Fiscal Multiplier in Small Open Economy: The Role of Liquidity Frictions," IMF Working Papers 2016/138, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Siming Liu, 2018. "Spending Multiplier during Sudden Stop Crises," 2018 Meeting Papers 226, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Ian Borg, "undated". "Fiscal Multipliers in Malta," CBM Working Papers WP/06/2014, Central Bank of Malta.
    7. Laurent Maurin, 2019. "Weakness of investment in Portugal: what role do credit supply and fiscal consolidation shocks play?," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 18(1), pages 19-45, February.
    8. Liu, Siming, 2022. "Government spending during sudden stop crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    9. Elva Bova & Violeta Klyviene, 2020. "Macroeconomic responses to fiscal shocks in Portugal," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 47(5), pages 1051-1069, April.
    10. José R. Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2021. "Lessons from a finitely-lived agents structural model," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    11. Martha López, 2016. "Fiscal Multipliers, Oil Revenues and Balance Sheet Effects," Borradores de Economia 976, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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