[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pre/wpaper/201840.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Greek Economic Policy Uncertainty: Does it Matter for the European Union?

Author

Listed:
  • Nikolaos Antonakakis

    (Department of Business and Management, Webster Vienna Private University, Vienna, Austria, and Economics and Finance Subject Group, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Portsmouth, United Kingdom)

  • David Gabauer

    (Department of Business and Management, Webster Vienna Private University, Vienna, Austria)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)

Abstract
We examine the propagation of economic policy uncertainty shocks within Greece and across Europe. Our analysis reveals that Greek economic policy uncertainty was dominating the European economic policy uncertainty nearly permanently throughout the period of analysis. In particular, uncertainty related to the Greek banking sector (capital controls) and currency issues (Grexit possibility) had a significant impact on European economic policy uncertainty. Further evidence suggests that, within Greece, fiscal policy uncertainty was driven by shocks related to currency, banking and monetary policy uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos Antonakakis & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Greek Economic Policy Uncertainty: Does it Matter for the European Union?," Working Papers 201840, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201840
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Juan Manuel Figueres, 2020. "Economic Policy Uncertainty Spillovers in Booms and Busts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(1), pages 125-155, February.
    2. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "The impact of US uncertainty on the Euro area in good and bad times: evidence from a quantile structural vector autoregressive model," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 353-368, May.
    3. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    4. Libo Yin & Liyan Han, 2014. "Spillovers of macroeconomic uncertainty among major economies," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(13), pages 938-944, September.
    5. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan & Plakandaras, Vasilios, 2018. "Dynamic connectedness of uncertainty across developed economies: A time-varying approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 63-75.
    6. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay Lim & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2017. "A Short Review of the Recent Literature on Uncertainty," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 50(1), pages 68-78, March.
    7. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2014. "A new index of financial conditions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 101-116.
    8. Colombo, Valentina, 2013. "Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for the Euro area?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 39-42.
    9. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David, 2017. "Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on TVP-VAR," MPRA Paper 78282, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2013. "Large time-varying parameter VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 185-198.
    11. Nicholas Apergis & Arusha Cooray, 2014. "Convergence in sovereign debt ratios across heavily indebted EU countries: evidence from club convergence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(11), pages 786-788, July.
    12. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    13. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    14. Klößner, Stefan & Sekkel, Rodrigo, 2014. "International spillovers of policy uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 508-512.
    15. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    16. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco José, 2013. "How does political instability affect economic growth?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 151-167.
    17. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    18. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    19. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    20. Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "On the transmission mechanism of country-specific and international economic uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from a TVP-VAR connectedness decomposition approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 63-71.
    21. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2018. "Policy uncertainty and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 319-331, April.
    22. Alesina, Alberto & Özler, Sule & Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
    23. Chen, Baizhu & Feng, Yi, 1996. "Some political determinants of economic growth: Theory and empirical implications," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 609-627, December.
    24. Jong-A-Pin, Richard, 2009. "On the measurement of political instability and its impact on economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 15-29, March.
    25. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    26. Nina Biljanovska & Francesco Grigoli & Martina Hengge, 2021. "Fear thy neighbor: Spillovers from economic policy uncertainty," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 409-438, May.
    27. Roberto A. De Santis & Srečko Zimic, 2018. "Spillovers among sovereign debt markets: Identification through absolute magnitude restrictions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 727-747, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Siphumlile Mangisa & Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "Analyzing The Impact Of Brexit On Global Uncertainty Using Functional Linear Regression With Point Of Impact: The Role Of Currency And Equity Markets," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 67(04), pages 1377-1388, June.
    2. Gupta, Rangan & Lau, Chi-Keung (Marco) & Sheng, Xin, 2020. "Graph theory-based network analysis of regional uncertainties of the US Economy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    3. Christina Christou & Giray Gozgor & Rangan Gupta & Chi keung Marco Lau, 2020. "Are Uncertainties across the World Convergent?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 855-862.
    4. Liew, Ping-Xin & Lim, Kian-Ping & Goh, Kim-Leng, 2022. "The dynamics and determinants of liquidity connectedness across financial asset markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 341-358.
    5. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Jacobus A. Nel & Xin Sheng, 2020. "Monetary policy uncertainty spillovers in time and frequency domains," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-30, December.
    6. Rangan Gupta & Chi-Keung (Marco) Lau & Xin Sheng, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty Connections across the US States: Evidence from a Bayesian Graphical Structural VAR (BGSVAR) Model," Working Papers 201910, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika, 2018. "Volatility spillovers among uncertainty measures. The case of EU member states," MPRA Paper 90319, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "Greek economic policy uncertainty: Does it matter for Europe? Evidence from a dynamic connectedness decomposition approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    2. Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Spillovers across macroeconomic, financial and real estate uncertainties: A time-varying approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 167-173.
    3. Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "On the transmission mechanism of country-specific and international economic uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from a TVP-VAR connectedness decomposition approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 63-71.
    4. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Stenfors, Alexis, 2020. "From CIP-deviations to a market for risk premia: A dynamic investigation of cross-currency basis swaps," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    5. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gabauer, David & Umar, Zaghum, 2021. "Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    6. Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2022. "Dynamic connectedness and spillovers across sectors: Evidence from the Indian stock market," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(3), pages 283-300, July.
    7. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2020. "Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, April.
    8. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan & Plakandaras, Vasilios, 2018. "Dynamic connectedness of uncertainty across developed economies: A time-varying approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 63-75.
    9. Liu, Peipei & Huang, Wei-Qiang, 2024. "Spatial analysis of sovereign risk from the perspective of EPU spillovers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 427-443.
    10. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "International monetary policy spillovers: Evidence from a time-varying parameter vector autoregression," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    11. Stenfors, Alexis & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David, 2022. "Independent policy, dependent outcomes: A game of cross-country dominoes across European yield curves," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    12. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Jacobus A. Nel & Xin Sheng, 2020. "Monetary policy uncertainty spillovers in time and frequency domains," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-30, December.
    13. Bouri, Elie & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Return connectedness across asset classes around the COVID-19 outbreak," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    14. Liew, Ping-Xin & Lim, Kian-Ping & Goh, Kim-Leng, 2022. "The dynamics and determinants of liquidity connectedness across financial asset markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 341-358.
    15. Christina Christou & Giray Gozgor & Rangan Gupta & Chi keung Marco Lau, 2020. "Are Uncertainties across the World Convergent?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 855-862.
    16. Genc, Ismail H., 2022. "Are Indian Subcontinent remittance markets connected to each other?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    17. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2023. "Integration and risk transmission in the market for crude oil: New evidence from a time-varying parameter frequency connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    18. David Gabauer, 2020. "Volatility impulse response analysis for DCC‐GARCH models: The role of volatility transmission mechanisms," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 788-796, August.
    19. Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Integration and Risk Transmission in the Market for Crude Oil: A Time-Varying Parameter Frequency Connectedness Approach," Working Papers 202147, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    20. David Gabauer & Sowmya Subramaniam & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "On the transmission mechanism of Asia‐Pacific yield curve characteristics," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 473-488, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    TVP-VAR-SV; Dynamic Connectedness; Dynamic Connectedness Decomposition; Categorical Economic Policy Uncertainty Spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201840. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rangan Gupta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decupza.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.