[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/99890.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are firms’ expectations on the availability of external finance Rational, Adaptive or Regressive?

Author

Listed:
  • Anastasiou, Dimitrios
  • Giannoulakis, Stelios
Abstract
This study contributes to the literature of expectation formation mechanisms by bringing new evidence on how non-financial corporations shape their expectations on the availability of external finance. We link consecutive surveys from the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises to investigate which expectation formation mechanism governs Eurozone firms regarding their expectations on the availability of external finance. In line with the past literature, we demonstrate that the Rational Expectations hypothesis is rejected by the data and we find evidence in favor of the Adaptive Expectation mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Anastasiou, Dimitrios & Giannoulakis, Stelios, 2020. "Are firms’ expectations on the availability of external finance Rational, Adaptive or Regressive?," MPRA Paper 99890, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:99890
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/99890/1/MPRA_paper_99890.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Imad Moosa & Abul Shamsuddin, 2004. "Expectation formation mechanisms, profitability of foreign exchange trading and exchange rate volatility," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(14), pages 1599-1606.
    2. Chetan Dave, 2011. "Are Investment Expectations Rational, Adaptive Or Regressive?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(1), pages 212-225, January.
    3. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    4. Sargent, Thomas J. & Wallace, Neil, 1976. "Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 169-183, April.
    5. Anastasiou, Dimitrios, 2020. "Senior bank loan officers' expectations for loan demand: Evidence from the Euro-area," MPRA Paper 98903, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Chow, Gregory C, 1989. "Rational versus Adaptive Expectations in Present Value Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 376-384, August.
    7. Batchelor, R A, 1986. "Quantitative v. Qualitative Measures of Inflation Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(2), pages 99-120, May.
    8. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, April.
    9. Konstantinos Drakos, 2008. "Efficiency and formation of expectations: evidence from the European investment survey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(8), pages 1015-1022.
    10. Dimitrios Anastasiou & Konstantinos Drakos, 2019. "A note on bank loan officers' expectations for credit standards: Evidence from the European bank lending survey," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 49-53, January.
    11. Goodwin, Thomas H & Sheffrin, Steven M, 1982. "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in an Agricultural Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(4), pages 658-667, November.
    12. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    13. Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, 2000. "Expectations Formation and Business Cycle Fluctuations: An Empirical Analysis of Actual and Expected Output in UK Manufacturing, 1975–1996," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(4), pages 463-490, September.
    14. Dimitrios Anastasiou & Helen Louri & Mike Tsionas, 2019. "Nonperforming loans in the euro area: Are core–periphery banking markets fragmented?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 97-112, January.
    15. Swarna Dutt & Dipak Ghosh, 1997. "Are experts' expectations rational? A multicurrency analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 803-812.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anastasiou, Dimitrios, 2020. "Senior bank loan officers' expectations for loan demand: Evidence from the Euro-area," MPRA Paper 98903, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Campbell, Randall C. & Nagel, Gregory L., 2016. "Private information and limitations of Heckman's estimator in banking and corporate finance research," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 186-195.
    3. Etienne Redor & Magnus Blomkvist, 2021. "Do all inside and affiliated directors hold the same value for shareholders?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 882-895.
    4. Baron, Opher & Callen, Jeffrey L. & Segal, Dan, 2023. "Does the bullwhip matter economically? A cross-sectional firm-level analysis," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    5. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas Muench, 2008. "Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 381-416, March.
    6. Giuseppe Pernagallo & Benedetto Torrisi, 2020. "A theory of information overload applied to perfectly efficient financial markets," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(2), pages 223-236, October.
    7. Ali Uyar & Cemil Kuzey & Merve Kilic & Abdullah S. Karaman, 2021. "Board structure, financial performance, corporate social responsibility performance, CSR committee, and CEO duality: Disentangling the connection in healthcare," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(6), pages 1730-1748, November.
    8. Arnd Kölling & Claus Schnabel, 2022. "Owners, external managers and industrial relations in German establishments," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 60(2), pages 424-443, June.
    9. Benitez-Silva, Hugo & Dwyer, Debra S., 2006. "Expectation formation of older married couples and the rational expectations hypothesis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 191-218, April.
    10. Ali Uyar & Simone Pizzi & Fabio Caputo & Cemil Kuzey & Abdullah S. Karaman, 2022. "Do shareholders reward or punish risky firms due to CSR reporting and assurance?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1596-1620, July.
    11. Nadjia Mehraban & Christoph Kubitza & Zulkifli Alamsyah & Matin Qaim, 2021. "Oil palm cultivation, household welfare, and exposure to economic risk in the Indonesian small farm sector," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 901-915, September.
    12. Woutersen, Tiemen & Hausman, Jerry A., 2019. "Increasing the power of specification tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 211(1), pages 166-175.
    13. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer, 2003. "What to Expect when you are Expecting Rationality: Testing Rational Expectations using Micro Data," Working Papers wp037, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    14. Geweke, J. & Joel Horowitz & Pesaran, M.H., 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0655, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    15. Liu, Jing & Lee, Monica & Gershenson, Seth, 2021. "The short- and long-run impacts of secondary school absences," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    16. Zhang, Chengsi & Dang, Chao, 2018. "Is monetary policy forward-looking in China?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 4-14.
    17. Gerunov, Anton, 2014. "Критичен Преглед На Основните Подходи За Моделиране На Икономическите Очаквания [A Critical Review of Major Approaches for Modeling Economic Expectations]," MPRA Paper 68797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. ElBannan, Mona A., 2017. "Stock market liquidity, family ownership, and capital structure choices in an emerging country," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 201-231.
    19. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2023. "Rationality and biases insights from disaggregated firm level inflation expectations data," Working Papers 11050, South African Reserve Bank.
    20. Perrotti, Daniel E., 2015. "The People’s Republic of China and Latin America: the impact of Chinese economic growth on Latin American exports," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    non-financial corporations; survey‐based expectations; expectation formation mechanisms; bank finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D0 - Microeconomics - - General
    • D00 - Microeconomics - - General - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:99890. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.