[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1904.03726.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Theory of Information overload applied to perfectly efficient financial markets

Author

Listed:
  • Giuseppe Pernagallo
  • Benedetto Torrisi
Abstract
Before the massive spread of computer technology, information was far from complex. The development of technology shifted the paradigm: from individuals who faced scarce and costly information to individuals who face massive amounts of information accessible at low costs. Nowadays we are living in the era of big data and investors deal every day with a huge flow of information. In the spirit of the modern idea that economic agents have limited computational capacity, we propose an original model using information overload to show how too much information could cause financial markets to depart from the traditional assumption of informational efficiency. We show that when information tends to infinite, the efficient market hypothesis ceases to be true. This happens also for lower levels of information, when the use of the maximum amount of information is not optimal for investors. The present work can be a stimulus to consider more realistic economic models and it can be further deepened including other realistic features present in financial markets, such as information asymmetry or noise in the transmission of information.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Pernagallo & Benedetto Torrisi, 2019. "A Theory of Information overload applied to perfectly efficient financial markets," Papers 1904.03726, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1904.03726
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.03726
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
    2. Persson, Petra, 2018. "Attention manipulation and information overload," Behavioural Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 78-106, May.
    3. Michael Rothschild & Joseph Stiglitz, 1976. "Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets: An Essay on the Economics of Imperfect Information," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 90(4), pages 629-649.
    4. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    5. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    7. Herbert A. Simon, 1991. "Bounded Rationality and Organizational Learning," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 2(1), pages 125-134, February.
    8. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2012. "On the Scientific Status of Economic Policy: A Tale of Alternative Paradigms," Post-Print hal-01385832, HAL.
    9. W. Brian Arthur, 1994. "Inductive Reasoning, Bounded Rationality and the Bar Problem," Working Papers 94-03-014, Santa Fe Institute.
    10. Sargent, Thomas J. & Wallace, Neil, 1976. "Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 169-183, April.
    11. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    12. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    13. Natividad Blasco & Pilar Corredor, 2016. "When and Where Are Informed Traders? What Is Their Relationship with Analysts in the Price Discovery Process?," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 352-364, October.
    14. Arthur, W Brian, 1994. "Inductive Reasoning and Bounded Rationality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 406-411, May.
    15. Richard H. Thaler, 2000. "From Homo Economicus to Homo Sapiens," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 133-141, Winter.
    16. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-254, April.
    17. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
    18. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1986. "Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 251-278, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Obojska, Lidia & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2024. "Capturing the timing of crisis evolution: A machine learning and directional wavelet coherence approach to isolating event-specific uncertainty using Google searches with an application to COVID-19," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    2. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2024. "Google search trends and stock markets: Sentiment, attention or uncertainty?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2023. "Which COVID-19 information really impacts stock markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    2. Tomáš Frömmel, 2017. "The Rational Expectations Hypothesis: Theoretical Critique," E-LOGOS, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(2), pages 4-12.
    3. Daniele SCHILIRÒ, 2013. "Bounded Rationality: Psychology, Economics And The Financial Crises," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 97-108.
    4. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Vošvrda, Miloslav S., 2016. "Herding, minority game, market clearing and efficient markets in a simple spin model framework," FinMaP-Working Papers 68, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    5. Garcia, René, 1986. "La théorie économique de l’information : exposé synthétique de la littérature," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 62(1), pages 88-109, mars.
    6. Ardalan, Kavous, 2018. "Neurofinance versus the efficient markets hypothesis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 170-176.
    7. Alessandro Morselli, 2020. "Inequalities between liberal doctrine and Keynesian-oriented conventional economics," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 86-117,118-.
    8. Delli Gatti,Domenico & Fagiolo,Giorgio & Gallegati,Mauro & Richiardi,Matteo & Russo,Alberto (ed.), 2018. "Agent-Based Models in Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108400046, September.
    9. Daniele Schilirò, 2012. "Bounded Rationality And Perfect Rationality: Psychology Into Economics," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 99-108.
    10. Thomas Holtfort, 2019. "From standard to evolutionary finance: a literature survey," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 207-232, June.
    11. Thiago Caliari & Ricardo Machado Ruiz & Marco Valente, 2016. "Heterogeneidade Da Demanda E Inovação De Produtos," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 135, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    12. Alexander S. Sangare, 2005. "Efficience des marchés : un siècle après Bachelier," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 81(4), pages 107-132.
    13. Thomas J. Brennan & Andrew W. Lo & Ruixun Zhang, 2018. "Variety Is the Spice of Life: Irrational Behavior as Adaptation to Stochastic Environments," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 1-39, September.
    14. J. Doyne Farmer, 2002. "Market force, ecology and evolution," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 11(5), pages 895-953, November.
    15. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2023. "Rationality and biases insights from disaggregated firm level inflation expectations data," Working Papers 11050, South African Reserve Bank.
    16. Jasman Tuyon & Zamri Ahmada, 2016. "Behavioural finance perspectives on Malaysian stock market efficiency," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 16(1), pages 43-61, March.
    17. Ashok Chakravarti, 2012. "Institutions, Economic Performance and the Visible Hand," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14751.
    18. Michelle Baddeley, 2019. "Behavioural Macroeconomic Policy: New perspectives on time inconsistency," Papers 1907.07858, arXiv.org.
    19. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2017. "The Revolution of Information Economics: The Past and the Future," NBER Working Papers 23780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2011. "Thomas J. Sargent and Christopher A. Sims: Empirical Macroeconomics," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2011-2, Nobel Prize Committee.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D4 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G4 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1904.03726. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.