[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/75219.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Multiple Equilibria in the Urban Spatial Structure: Evidence from the Hanshin Earthquake

Author

Listed:
  • Xu, Hangtian
Abstract
Despite the theoretical predictions that multiple equilibria exist in urban spatial structure, there remains a dearth of related empirical literature. This study adopts the 1995 Hanshin earthquake, which devastated the major city of Kobe (Japan), as a natural experiment to investigate the existence of multiple equilibria. Using municipality-level population data for the period of 1988–2011 and synthetic control approach, the analysis reveals that 16 years after the earthquake, the urban spatial structure in quaked areas persistently differs from the pre-quake pattern, although the total population recovered. Because of the seismic damage to Kobe, residents from around it migrated to areas close to Osaka, another major city close to the epicenter but less damaged. The major motivation underlying the migration is the demand for services provided in major cities. This tendency was not reversed even after Kobe was reconstructed, because the equilibrium of population dynamics moved to a new steady state.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Hangtian, 2016. "Multiple Equilibria in the Urban Spatial Structure: Evidence from the Hanshin Earthquake," MPRA Paper 75219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:75219
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/75219/1/MPRA_paper_75219.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scawthorn, Charles & Iemura, Hirokazu & Yamada, Yoshikazu, 1982. "The influence of natural hazards on urban housing location," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 242-251, March.
    2. Edward L. Glaeser, Jed Kolko, and Albert Saiz, 2001. "Consumer city," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 27-50, January.
    3. Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm & Nikolaus Wolf, 2011. "History and Industry Location: Evidence from German Airports," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 814-831, August.
    4. Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Raymond Owens, 2010. "Housing Externalities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(3), pages 485-535, June.
    5. Horwich, George, 2000. "Economic Lessons of the Kobe Earthquake," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(3), pages 521-542, April.
    6. Bosker, Maarten & Brakman, Steven & Garretsen, Harry & Schramm, Marc, 2008. "A century of shocks: The evolution of the German city size distribution 1925-1999," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 330-347, July.
    7. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm & Nikolaus Wolf, 2015. "The Economics of Density: Evidence From the Berlin Wall," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2127-2189, November.
    8. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2008. "A Search For Multiple Equilibria In Urban Industrial Structure," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 29-65, February.
    9. Eric Strobl, 2011. "The Economic Growth Impact of Hurricanes: Evidence from U.S. Coastal Counties," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 575-589, May.
    10. Nakagawa, Masayuki & Saito, Makoto & Yamaga, Hisaki, 2007. "Earthquake risk and housing rents: Evidence from the Tokyo Metropolitan Area," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 87-99, January.
    11. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-499, June.
    12. Fujita, Masahisa & Krugman, Paul & Mori, Tomoya, 1999. "On the evolution of hierarchical urban systems1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 209-251, February.
    13. Tomoya Mori & Koji Nishikimi & Tony E. Smith, 2008. "The Number‐Average Size Rule: A New Empirical Relationship Between Industrial Location And City Size," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 165-211, February.
    14. Trond G. Husby & Henri L.F. Groot & Marjan W. Hofkes & Martijn I. Dröes, 2014. "Do Floods Have Permanent Effects? Evidence From The Netherlands," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 355-377, June.
    15. Eduardo Cavallo & Sebastian Galiani & Ilan Noy & Juan Pantano, 2013. "Catastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1549-1561, December.
    16. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    17. Ohtake, Fumio & Okuyama, Naoko & Sasaki, Masaru & Yasui, Kengo, 2014. "The Long-term Impact of the 1995 Hanshin–Awaji Earthquake on Wage Distribution," IZA Discussion Papers 8124, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Marc Schramm, 2004. "The strategic bombing of German cities during World War II and its impact on city growth," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 201-218, April.
    19. Hoyt Bleakley & Jeffrey Lin, 2012. "Portage and Path Dependence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 587-644.
    20. Ando, Michihito, 2015. "Dreams of urbanization: Quantitative case studies on the local impacts of nuclear power facilities using the synthetic control method," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 68-85.
    21. Naoi, Michio & Seko, Miki & Sumita, Kazuto, 2009. "Earthquake risk and housing prices in Japan: Evidence before and after massive earthquakes," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 658-669, November.
    22. Masayuki Morikawa, 2011. "Economies of Density and Productivity in Service Industries: An Analysis of Personal Service Industries Based on Establishment-Level Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 179-192, February.
    23. William duPont IV & Ilan Noy, 2015. "What Happened to Kobe? A Reassessment of the Impact of the 1995 Earthquake in Japan," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(4), pages 777-812.
    24. Barone, Guglielmo & Mocetti, Sauro, 2014. "Natural disasters, growth and institutions: A tale of two earthquakes," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 52-66.
    25. Siodla, James, 2015. "Razing San Francisco: The 1906 disaster as a natural experiment in urban redevelopment," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 48-61.
    26. Douglas W. Caves & Laurits R. Christensen & Michael W. Tretheway, 1984. "Economies of Density versus Economies of Scale: Why Trunk and Local Service Airline Costs Differ," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 15(4), pages 471-489, Winter.
    27. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2002. "Bones, Bombs, and Break Points: The Geography of Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1269-1289, December.
    28. Fujita,Masahisa, 1991. "Urban Economic Theory," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521396455.
    29. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    30. Miguel, Edward & Roland, Gérard, 2011. "The long-run impact of bombing Vietnam," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 1-15, September.
    31. Mohammad Arzaghi & J. Vernon Henderson, 2008. "Networking off Madison Avenue," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(4), pages 1011-1038.
    32. Bosker, Maarten & Brakman, Steven & Garretsen, Harry & Schramm, Marc, 2007. "Looking for multiple equilibria when geography matters: German city growth and the WWII shock," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 152-169, January.
    33. Yu Xiao, 2011. "Local Economic Impacts Of Natural Disasters," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(4), pages 804-820, October.
    34. Fujita, Masahisa & Ogawa, Hideaki, 1982. "Multiple equilibria and structural transition of non-monocentric urban configurations," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 161-196, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephen J. Redding & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2017. "Quantitative Spatial Economics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 21-58, September.
    2. Xu, Hangtian, 2017. "Spatial Reorganization in Urban Redevelopment: Evidence from an Earthquake in a Metropolitan Area," MPRA Paper 78986, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Stephen J. Redding, 2010. "The Empirics Of New Economic Geography," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 297-311, February.
    4. Duc A. Nguyen & Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Tristan Kohl, 2024. "Mean Reversion of the German City System After the WWII Bombing of Cities: What Is the Mean?," CESifo Working Paper Series 11423, CESifo.
    5. Hanlon, W.Walker & Heblich, Stephan, 2022. "History and urban economics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    6. Siodla, James, 2021. "Firms, fires, and firebreaks: The impact of the 1906 San Francisco disaster on business agglomeration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Stephen J. Redding, 2013. "Economic Geography: A Review of the Theoretical and Empirical Literature," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Daniel Bernhofen & Rod Falvey & David Greenaway & Udo Kreickemeier (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of International Trade, chapter 16, pages 497-531, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Siodla, James, 2017. "Clean slate: Land-use changes in San Francisco after the 1906 disaster," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-16.
    9. Philipp Ager & Casper Worm Hansen & Lars Lønstrup, 2015. "Shaking up the Equilibrium: Natural Disasters, Immigration and Economic Geography," Discussion Papers 15-17, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    10. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm & Nikolaus Wolf, 2015. "The Economics of Density: Evidence From the Berlin Wall," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2127-2189, November.
    11. Berger, Thor & Enflo, Kerstin, 2017. "Locomotives of local growth: The short- and long-term impact of railroads in Sweden," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 124-138.
    12. Lin, Jeffrey & Rauch, Ferdinand, 2022. "What future for history dependence in spatial economics?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    13. Fuchs-Schündeln, N. & Hassan, T.A., 2016. "Natural Experiments in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 923-1012, Elsevier.
    14. Barone, Guglielmo & Mocetti, Sauro, 2014. "Natural disasters, growth and institutions: A tale of two earthquakes," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 52-66.
    15. Testa, Patrick A., 2021. "Shocks and the spatial distribution of economic activity: The role of institutions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 791-810.
    16. David Cuberes & Rafael González-Val, 2017. "The effect of the Spanish Reconquest on Iberian cities," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 58(3), pages 375-416, May.
    17. Breinlich, Holger & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2014. "Regional Growth and Regional Decline," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 4, pages 683-779, Elsevier.
    18. Ager, Philipp & Hansen, Casper Worm & Lønstrup, Lars, 2018. "Shaking Up the Equilibrium: Natural Disasters, Economic Activity, and Immigration," Discussion Papers on Economics 2/2018, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    19. William duPont IV & Ilan Noy & Yoko Okuyama & Yasuyuki Sawada, 2015. "The Long-Run Socio-Economic Consequences of a Large Disaster: The 1995 Earthquake in Kobe," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, October.
    20. Ager, Philipp & Eriksson, Katherine & Hansen, Casper Worm & Lønstrup, Lars, 2020. "How the 1906 San Francisco earthquake shaped economic activity in the American West," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    multiple equilibria; natural disaster; urban spatial structure; synthetic control approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • R2 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:75219. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.