This study investigates the short- and long-run impact on population dynamics of the major flood in the Netherlands in 1953. A dynamic difference-in-differences analysis reveals that the flood had an immediate negative impact on population growth, but limited long-term effects. In contrast, the resulting flood protection program (Deltaworks), had a persisting positive effect on population growth. As a result, there has been an increase in population in flood-prone areas. Our results suggest a moral hazard effect of flood mitigation leading to more people locating in flood-prone areas, increasing potential disaster costs."> This study investigates the short- and long-run impact on population dynamics of the major flood in the Netherlands in 1953. A dynamic difference-in-differences analysis reveals that the flood had an immediate negative impact on population growth, but limited long-term effects. In contrast, the resulting flood protection program (Deltaworks), had a persisting positive effect on population growth. As a result, there has been an increase in population in flood-prone areas. Our results suggest a moral hazard effect of flood mitigation leading to more people locating in flood-prone areas, increasing potential disaster costs."> This study investigates the short- and long-run impact on population dynamics of the major flood in the Netherlands in 1953. A dynamic difference-in-differences analysis reveal">
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Do Floods Have Permanent Effects? Evidence From The Netherlands

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  • Trond G. Husby
  • Henri L.F. Groot
  • Marjan W. Hofkes
  • Martijn I. Dröes
Abstract
type="main"> This study investigates the short- and long-run impact on population dynamics of the major flood in the Netherlands in 1953. A dynamic difference-in-differences analysis reveals that the flood had an immediate negative impact on population growth, but limited long-term effects. In contrast, the resulting flood protection program (Deltaworks), had a persisting positive effect on population growth. As a result, there has been an increase in population in flood-prone areas. Our results suggest a moral hazard effect of flood mitigation leading to more people locating in flood-prone areas, increasing potential disaster costs.

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  • Trond G. Husby & Henri L.F. Groot & Marjan W. Hofkes & Martijn I. Dröes, 2014. "Do Floods Have Permanent Effects? Evidence From The Netherlands," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 355-377, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:54:y:2014:i:3:p:355-377
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    2. Ilan Noy & Eric Strobl, 2023. "Creatively Destructive Hurricanes: Do Disasters Spark Innovation?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(1), pages 1-17, January.
    3. Trond G. Husby & Elco E. Koks, 2017. "Household migration in disaster impact analysis: incorporating behavioural responses to risk," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(1), pages 287-305, May.
    4. Hayato Kato & Toshihiro Okubo, 2017. "The Impact of a Natural Disaster on Foreign Direct Investment and Vertical Linkages," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2017-018, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    5. Trond Husby & Hans Visser, 2021. "Short- to medium-run forecasting of mobility with dynamic linear models," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(28), pages 871-902.
    6. Jianhong E. Mu & Yong Chen, 2016. "Impacts of large natural disasters on regional income," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(3), pages 1485-1503, September.
    7. Tom Gillespie & Ronan C. Lyons & Thomas K. J. McDermott, 2020. "Information Matters: Evidence from flood risk in the Irish housing market," Trinity Economics Papers tep1620, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    8. Douglas S. Noonan & Xian Liu, 2019. "Heading for the Hills? Effects of Community Flood Management on Local Adaptation to Flood Risks," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(2), pages 800-822, October.
    9. Trond Husby & Henri L. F. de Groot & Marjan W. Hofkes & Tatiana Filatova, 2018. "Flood protection and endogenous sorting of households: the role of credit constraints," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 147-168, February.
    10. repec:ags:aaea22:335442 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Noonan, Douglas S. & Sadiq, Abdul-Akeem, 2019. "Community-scale Flood Risk Management: Effects of a Voluntary National Program on Migration and Development," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 92-99.
    12. Toshihiro Okubo & Eric Strobl, 2021. "Natural disasters, firm survival, and growth: Evidence from the Ise Bay Typhoon, Japan," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(5), pages 944-970, November.
    13. R. Collenteur & H. Moel & B. Jongman & G. Di Baldassarre, 2015. "The failed-levee effect: Do societies learn from flood disasters?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(1), pages 373-388, March.
    14. Ye, Victor Yifan & Becker, Charles M., 2018. "The Z-axis: Elevation gradient effects in Urban America," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 312-329.
    15. Matteo Coronese & Davide Luzzati, 2022. "Economic impacts of natural hazards and complexity science: a critical review," LEM Papers Series 2022/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    16. Xu, Hangtian, 2016. "Multiple Equilibria in the Urban Spatial Structure: Evidence from the Hanshin Earthquake," MPRA Paper 75219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Toon Haer & W. J. Wouter Botzen & Hans de Moel & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, 2017. "Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent‐Based Model Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(10), pages 1977-1992, October.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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