[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/53934.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Empirical Study on the New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve: Japan and the US

Author

Listed:
  • Muto, Ichiro
  • Shintani, Kohei
Abstract
We present an empirical analysis on the New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve (NKWPC), which is derived by Gali (2011) as a micro-founded structural relationship between wage inflation and the unemployment rate under a sticky wage framework using data for Japan and the US. We find that the empirical fit of the NKWPC is generally superior for Japan. We also find that the slope of the NKWPC is much steeper in Japan than in the US. These results suggest that wages are less sticky in Japan than in the US. Inflation indexation plays a key role in the US, but is less important in Japan. Rolling estimations indicate that the NKWPC has flattened over time in Japan. Analysis of recent data indicates that in both countries the role of inflation indexation is quantitatively smaller than before, although this result might be influenced by low and stable inflation rates over the past few decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Muto, Ichiro & Shintani, Kohei, 2014. "An Empirical Study on the New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve: Japan and the US," MPRA Paper 53934, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53934
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53934/1/MPRA_paper_53934.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 341-370, February.
    2. Jordi Galí, 2011. "The Return Of The Wage Phillips Curve," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 436-461, June.
    3. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "U.S. Wage and Price Dynamics: A Limited-Information Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September.
    5. Antonella Trigari, 2009. "Equilibrium Unemployment, Job Flows, and Inflation Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 1-33, February.
    6. Hofmann, Boris & Peersman, Gert & Straub, Roland, 2012. "Time variation in U.S. wage dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 769-783.
    7. Krause, Michael U. & Lubik, Thomas A., 2007. "The (ir)relevance of real wage rigidity in the New Keynesian model with search frictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 706-727, April.
    8. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    9. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    10. Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2005. "Identification Issues in Forward-Looking Models Estimated by GMM, with an Application to the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 421-448, June.
    11. Gordon, Robert J, 1982. "Why U.S. Wage and Employment Behaviour Differs from That in Britain and Japan," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(365), pages 13-44, March.
    12. Jordi Galí & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2012. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 329-360.
    13. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
    14. Freeman, Richard B. & Weitzman, Martin L., 1987. "Bonuses and employment in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 168-194, June.
    15. Kuroda, Sachiko & Yamamoto, Isamu, 2008. "Estimating Frisch labor supply elasticity in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 566-585, December.
    16. Walsh, Carl E., 2003. "Labor Market Search, Sticky Prices, and Interest Rate Policies," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt6tg550dv, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    17. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
    18. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
    19. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464.
    20. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    21. Thomas, Carlos & Zanetti, Francesco, 2009. "Labor market reform and price stability: An application to the Euro Area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 885-899, September.
    22. Sbordone, Argia M., 2002. "Prices and unit labor costs: a new test of price stickiness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 265-292, March.
    23. Kuroda, Sachiko & Yamamoto, Isamu, 2003. "Are Japanese Nominal Wages Downwardly Rigid? (Part I): Examinations of Nominal Wage Change Distributions," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(2), pages 1-29, August.
    24. Carl E. Walsh, 2005. "Labor Market Search, Sticky Prices, and Interest Rate Policies," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(4), pages 829-849, October.
    25. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    26. Ichiro Muto, 2009. "Estimating A New Keynesian Phillips Curve With A Corrected Measure Of Real Marginal Cost: Evidence In Japan," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 667-684, October.
    27. Sachiko Kuroda & Isamu Yamamoto, 2007. "Why Are Nominal Wages Downwardly Rigid, but Less So in Japan? An Explanation Based on Behavioral Economics and Labor Market/Macroeconomic Differences," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(2), pages 45-88, November.
    28. Kimura, Takeshi & Ueda, Kazuo, 2001. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 50-67, March.
    29. Isamu Yamamoto, 2008. "Changes in Wage Adjustment, Employment Adjustment and Phillips Curve: Japan's Experience in the 1990s," Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series 2008-024, Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program.
    30. Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2004. "Weak Identification of Forward‐looking Models in Monetary Economics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 609-635, September.
    31. Kuroda, Sachiko & Yamamoto, Isamu, 2003. "Are Japanese Nominal Wages Downwardly Rigid? (Part II): Examinations Using a Friction Model," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(2), pages 31-68, August.
    32. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    33. Taylor, John B., 1989. "Differences in economic fluctuations in Japan and the United States: The role of nominal rigidities," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 127-144, June.
    34. Renato Faccini & Stephen Millard & Francesco Zanetti, 2013. "Wage Rigidities in an Estimated Dynamic, Stochastic, General Equilibrium Model of the UK Labour Market," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 66-99, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Erzsébet Éva Nagy & Veronika Tengely, 2018. "The external and domestic drivers of inflation: the case study of Hungary," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and deglobalisation, volume 100, pages 149-172, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Jonathan A. Attey, 2016. "Time-Varying Degree of Wage Indexation and the New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-102/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Antonia López-Villavicencio & Sophie Saglio, 2017. "The Wage Inflation-Unemployment Curve at the Macroeconomic Level," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(1), pages 55-78, February.
    4. Yoichi Ueno, 2024. "Linkage between Wage and Price Inflation in Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    5. Chun-Hung Kuo & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2016. "Unemployment and Wage Rigidity in Japan: A DSGE Model Perspective," Working Papers EMS_2016_06, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    6. Takeo Hoshi & Anil K Kashyap, 2020. "The Great Disconnect: The Decoupling of Wage and Price Inflation in Japan," NBER Working Papers 27332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Alexius, Annika & Lundholm, Michael & Nielsen, Linnea, 2020. "Is the Phillips curve dead? International evidence," Research Papers in Economics 2020:1, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    8. Iwasaki, Yuto & Muto, Ichiro & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2021. "Missing wage inflation? Estimating the natural rate of unemployment in a nonlinear DSGE model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    9. Momo Komatsu, 2023. "The effect of wage rigidity on the transmission of monetary policy to inequality," Economics Series Working Papers 1004, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    10. De Schryder, Selien & Peersman, Gert & Wauters, Joris, 2020. "Wage indexation and the monetary policy regime," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    11. Davide Porcellacchia, 2016. "Wage-Price Dynamics and Structural Reforms in Japan," IMF Working Papers 2016/020, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Hiroyuki Kubota & Ichiro Muto & Mototsugu Shintani, 2022. "Monetary Policy, Labor Force Participation, and Wage Rigidity," IMES Discussion Paper Series 22-E-17, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    13. Ichiro Muto & Kohei Shintani, 2014. "What are the Characteristics of Japan's Aggregate Wage Dynamics?: An Empirical Study on the New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve for Japan and the US," Bank of Japan Research Laboratory Series 14-E-2, Bank of Japan.
    14. Fumitaka Nakamura & Nao Sudo & Yu Sugisaki, 2021. "Monetary Policy Shocks and the Employment of Young, Middle-Aged, and Old Workers," IMES Discussion Paper Series 21-E-06, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    15. Guilmi, Corrado Di & Fujiwara, Yoshi, 2022. "Dual labor market, financial fragility, and deflation in an agent-based model of the Japanese macroeconomy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 346-371.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Federico Di Pace & Matthias Hertweck, 2019. "Labor Market Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Durable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 274-304, April.
    2. Jordi Galí, 2011. "The Return Of The Wage Phillips Curve," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 436-461, June.
    3. Galí, Jordi, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Unemployment," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 10, pages 487-546, Elsevier.
    4. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: In Search of Improvements and Adaptation to the Open Economy," Economics wp31_tjorvi, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    5. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    6. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marco Di Pietro, 2017. "Intrinsic Persistence of Wage Inflation in New Keynesian Models of the Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1195, September.
    7. Thomas, Carlos, 2008. "Search and matching frictions and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 936-956, July.
    8. Malikane, Christopher, 2012. "The Microfoundations of the Keynesian Wage-Price Spiral," MPRA Paper 42923, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
    9. Malikane, Christopher, 2014. "A new Keynesian triangle Phillips curve," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 247-255.
    10. Zanetti, Francesco, 2011. "Labor market institutions and aggregate fluctuations in a search and matching model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 644-658, June.
    11. Latsos Sophia, 2018. "Real Wage Effects of Japan’s Monetary Policy," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 69(1), pages 177-215, July.
    12. Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John Williams & Noah M. Williams, 2006. "Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 229-312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Yasufumi Gemma & Takushi Kurozumi & Mototsugu Shintani, 2023. "Trend Inflation and Evolving Inflation Dynamics:A Bayesian GMM Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 506-520, December.
    14. Kuester, Keith & Müller, Gernot J. & Stölting, Sarah, 2009. "Is the New Keynesian Phillips curve flat?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 39-41, April.
    15. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2009. "Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 375-398, June.
    16. Choi, Yoonseok, 2021. "Inflation dynamics, the role of inflation at different horizons and inflation uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 649-662.
    17. Fuchi, Hitoshi & Oda, Nobuyuki & Ugai, Hiroshi, 2008. "Optimal inflation for Japan's economy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 439-475, December.
    18. Abbas, Syed K. & Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar & Sgro, Pasquale, 2016. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: An update on recent empirical advances," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 378-403.
    19. Jinho Choi & Juan Carlos Escanciano & Junjie Guo, 2022. "Generalized band spectrum estimation with an application to the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 1055-1078, August.
    20. Scheufele, Rolf, 2010. "Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 145-164, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wage; Unemployment rate: New Keynesian model; Phillips curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53934. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.