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Time-Varying Degree of Wage Indexation and the New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan A. Attey

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands)

Abstract
Cost-of-Living-Adjustment (COLA) coverage figures suggest a time variation in the degree of wage indexation. In spite of this observation, most current literature conveniently assume a constant degree of indexation as this variable is not directly observable. This study intends to empirically measure the time variation in the degree of wage indexation. To this end, we derive a reduced form version of the New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve under the assumption of a time varying degree of wage indexation. A state space methodology is then employed in estimating this model using data of selected OECD countries. The study subsequently investigates variables influencing the time variation in the degree of wage indexation. Our results consistently suggest a substantial time variation in the degree of wage indexation in all countries considered. The wage indexation estimates obtained for the US bear remarkable similarities with the figures suggested by COLA coverage. It is subsequently shown that variations in trend inflation significantly explain variations in the degree of wage indexation. Finally, there is weak evidence in support of the Gray hypothesis that wage indexation is negatively correlated with the variance of productivity shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan A. Attey, 2016. "Time-Varying Degree of Wage Indexation and the New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-102/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20160102
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Muto Ichiro & Shintani Kohei, 2020. "An empirical study on the New Keynesian wage Phillips curve: Japan and the US," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-17, January.
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    10. Guido Ascari & Nicola Branzoli & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2011. "Trend Inflation, Wage Indexation, and Determinacy in the U.S," Quaderni di Dipartimento 153, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
    11. Holland, A Steven, 1986. "Wage Indexation and the Effect of Inflation Uncertainty on Employment:An Empirical Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 235-243, March.
    12. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2008. "Trend Inflation, Indexation, and Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2101-2126, December.
    13. Esteban Jadresic, 2002. "The Macroeconomic COnsequences of Wage Indexation Revisited," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Fernando Lefort & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Serie (ed.),Indexation, Inflation and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 8, pages 207-258, Central Bank of Chile.
    14. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "The impacts of regime-switching structures and fat-tailed characteristics on the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 523-536.
    15. James F. Ragan, Jr. & Bernt Bratsberg, 2000. "Un-COLA: Why Have Cost-of-Living Clauses Disappeared from Union Contracts and Will They Return?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(2), pages 304-324, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Evžen Kočenda & Balázs Varga, 2018. "The Impact of Monetary Strategies on Inflation Persistence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 229-274, September.
    2. Carrillo, Julio A. & Peersman, Gert & Wauters, Joris, 2022. "Endogenous wage indexation and aggregate shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    3. Kang, Hyunju & Park, Jaevin & Suh, Hyunduk, 2020. "The rise of part-time employment in the great recession: Its causes and macroeconomic effects," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wage Indexation; Unemployment; Wage Phillips curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

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