[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pit/wpaper/534.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Transition to Clean Technology

Author

Listed:
  • Douglas Hanley
  • Daron Acemoglu
  • Ufuk Akcigit
  • William Kerr
Abstract
We develop a microeconomic model of endogenous growth where clean and dirty technologies compete in production and innovation-in the sense that research can be directed to either clean or dirty technologies. If dirty technologies are more advanced to start with, the potential transition to clean technology can be difficult both because clean research must climb several steps to catch up with dirty technology and because this gap discourages research effort directed towards clean technologies. Carbon taxes and research subsidies may nonetheless encourage production and innovation in clean technologies, though the transition will typically be slow. We characterize certain general properties of the transition path from dirty to clean technology. We then estimate the model using a combination of regression analysis on the relationship between R&D and patents, and simulated method of moments using microdata on employment, production, R&D, firm growth, entry and exit from the US energy sector. The model`s quantitative implications match a range of moments not targeted in the estimation quite well. We then characterize the optimal policy path implied by the model and our estimates. Optimal policy heavily relies on research subsidies as well as carbon taxes. We use the model to evaluate the welfare consequences of a range of alternative policy structures. For example, just relying on carbon taxes or delaying intervention both have significant welfare costs--though their implications for medium run temperature increases are quite different.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas Hanley & Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & William Kerr, 2014. "Transition to Clean Technology," Working Paper 534, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Jan 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:pit:wpaper:534
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dohan.dyndns.org/papers/AAHK_final.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William Kerr & Shihe Fu, 2008. "The survey of industrial R&D—patent database link project," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 173-186, April.
    2. Nicholas Z. Muller & Robert Mendelsohn & William Nordhaus, 2011. "Environmental Accounting for Pollution in the United States Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1649-1675, August.
    3. Philippe Aghion & Antoine Dechezleprêtre & David Hémous & Ralf Martin & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Carbon Taxes, Path Dependency, and Directed Technical Change: Evidence from the Auto Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 1-51.
    4. Stern,Nicholas, 2007. "The Economics of Climate Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521700801, September.
    5. McFadden, Daniel, 1989. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models without Numerical Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 995-1026, September.
    6. Bard Harstad, 2012. "Climate Contracts: A Game of Emissions, Investments, Negotiations, and Renegotiations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(4), pages 1527-1557.
    7. Jerome Adda & Russell W. Cooper, 2003. "Dynamic Economics: Quantitative Methods and Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012014, April.
    8. repec:fth:harver:1473 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit, 2012. "Intellectual Property Rights Policy, Competition And Innovation," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-42, February.
    10. Lans Bovenberg, A. & Smulders, Sjak, 1995. "Environmental quality and pollution-augmenting technological change in a two-sector endogenous growth model," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 369-391, July.
    11. Tor Jakob Klette & Samuel Kortum, 2004. "Innovating Firms and Aggregate Innovation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 986-1018, October.
    12. Popp, David & Newell, Richard, 2012. "Where does energy R&D come from? Examining crowding out from energy R&D," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 980-991.
    13. Zvi Griliches, 1998. "Patent Statistics as Economic Indicators: A Survey," NBER Chapters, in: R&D and Productivity: The Econometric Evidence, pages 287-343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Sabine Messner, 1997. "Endogenized technological learning in an energy systems model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 291-313.
    15. William R. Kerr & William F. Lincoln, 2010. "The Supply Side of Innovation: H-1B Visa Reforms and U.S. Ethnic Invention," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(3), pages 473-508, July.
    16. Martin L. Weitzman, 2009. "On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 1-19, February.
    17. Richard G. Newell & Adam B. Jaffe & Robert N. Stavins, 1999. "The Induced Innovation Hypothesis and Energy-Saving Technological Change," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(3), pages 941-975.
    18. Natarajan Balasubramanian & Jagadeesh Sivadasan, 2011. "What Happens When Firms Patent? New Evidence from U.S. Economic Census Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 126-146, February.
    19. John Hassler & Per Krusell, 2012. "Economics And Climate Change: Integrated Assessment In A Multi-Region World," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 974-1000, October.
    20. Daron Acemoglu, 1998. "Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills? Directed Technical Change and Wage Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1055-1089.
    21. Hartley, Peter & Medlock, Kenneth B., III & Temzelides, Ted & Zhang, Xinya, 2014. "Energy Sector Innovation and Growth," Working Papers 14-009, Rice University, Department of Economics.
    22. Grimaud, André & Lafforgue, Gilles & Magné, Bertrand, 2011. "Climate change mitigation options and directed technical change: A decentralized equilibrium analysis," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 938-962.
    23. Christopher Harris & John Vickers, 1995. "Innovation and Natural Resources: A Dynamic Game with Uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 26(3), pages 418-430, Autumn.
    24. Pizer, William A., 1999. "The optimal choice of climate change policy in the presence of uncertainty," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3-4), pages 255-287, August.
    25. Peter A. Stott & D. A. Stone & M. R. Allen, 2004. "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003," Nature, Nature, vol. 432(7017), pages 610-614, December.
    26. Popp, David, 2006. "Innovation in climate policy models: Implementing lessons from the economics of R&D," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5-6), pages 596-609, November.
    27. Lucia Foster & Cheryl Grim, 2010. "Characteristics of the Top R&D Performing Firms in the U.S.: Evidence from the Survey of Industrial R&D," Working Papers 10-33, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    28. Mikhail Golosov & John Hassler & Per Krusell & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2014. "Optimal Taxes on Fossil Fuel in General Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(1), pages 41-88, January.
    29. Goulder, Lawrence H. & Schneider, Stephen H., 1999. "Induced technological change and the attractiveness of CO2 abatement policies," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3-4), pages 211-253, August.
    30. Hémous, David, 2013. "Environmental Policy and Directed Technical Change in a Global Economy: The Dynamic Impact of Unilateral Environmental Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 9733, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jean-François Ouvrard, 2015. "L'analyse macroéconomique de la transition énergétique : difficile mais indispensable," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(1), pages 63-73.
    2. Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks & Elena Verdolini & Massimo Tavoni, 2015. "Directed Technological Change and Energy Efficiency Improvements," Working Papers 2015.78, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    3. Witajewski-Baltvilks, Jan & Verdolini, Elena & Tavoni, Massimo, 2017. "Induced technological change and energy efficiency improvements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S1), pages 17-32.
    4. Girol Karacaoglu, 2015. "The New Zealand Treasury's Living Standards Framework - Exploring a Stylised Model," Treasury Working Paper Series 15/12, New Zealand Treasury.
    5. Christian Ketels, 2015. "Competitiveness and Clusters: Implications for a New European Growth Strategy. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 84," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 57892.
    6. Chiara Ravetti & Tania Theoduloz & Giulia Valacchi, 2020. "Buy Coal or Kick-Start Green Innovation? Energy Policies in an Open Economy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(1), pages 95-126, September.
    7. Doorasamy Mishelle, 2016. "The Perceptions of Management on the Benefits of Adopting an Environmental Management Accounting System as a Waste Management Tool," Foundations of Management, Sciendo, vol. 8(1), pages 93-106, January.
    8. Shaker, Saber Adly, 2019. "Can Clean Technology Exports Affect CO2 Emissions for Partners? Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 96867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Antoine Dechezleprêtre & David Popp, 2015. "Fiscal and Regulatory Instruments for Clean Technology Development in the European Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 5361, CESifo.
    10. Chegut, Andrea & Eichholtz, Piet & Kok, Nils, 2019. "The price of innovation: An analysis of the marginal cost of green buildings," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    11. Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks, 2018. "Green Growth and Taste Heterogeneity," IBS Working Papers 07/2018, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    12. Salome Baslandze, 2015. "The Role of the IT Revolution in Knowledge Diffusion, Innovation and Reallocation," 2015 Meeting Papers 1488, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Salome Baslandze, 2016. "The Role of the IT Revolution in Knowledge Di ffusion, Innovation and Reallocation," 2016 Meeting Papers 1509, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Schmalensee, Richard, 2015. "The future of solar energy: A personal assessment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(S1), pages 142-148.
    15. Prudence Dato, 2017. "Energy Transition Under Irreversibility: A Two-Sector Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(3), pages 797-820, November.
    16. Lu, Hongyou & Xu, Wenli & Xu, Kun, 2016. "How to Make The Fiscal policies Greener in China?——Based on The Perspective of Environmental Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 70221, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Antosiewicz, Marek & Witajewski-Baltvilks, Jan, 2021. "Short- and long-run dynamics of energy demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    18. Noailly, Joëlle & Smeets, Roger, 2015. "Directing technical change from fossil-fuel to renewable energy innovation: An application using firm-level patent data," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 15-37.
    19. Song, Malin & Wang, Shuhong, 2016. "Can employment structure promote environment-biased technical progress?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 285-292.
    20. Lööf, Hans & Martinsson, Gustav & Mohammadi, Ali, 2017. "Finance and Innovative Investment in Environmental Technology: The Case of Sweden," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 445, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
    21. Cumming, Douglas & Henriques, Irene & Sadorsky, Perry, 2016. "‘Cleantech’ venture capital around the world," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 86-97.
    22. Shengzhong Zhang & Yingmin Yu & Qihong Zhu & Chun Martin Qiu & Aixuan Tian, 2020. "Green Innovation Mode under Carbon Tax and Innovation Subsidy: An Evolutionary Game Analysis for Portfolio Policies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-22, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & Douglas Hanley & William Kerr, 2016. "Transition to Clean Technology," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 52-104.
    2. Philippe Aghion & Antoine Dechezleprêtre & David Hémous & Ralf Martin & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Carbon Taxes, Path Dependency, and Directed Technical Change: Evidence from the Auto Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 1-51.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Leonardo Bursztyn & David Hemous, 2012. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 131-166, February.
    4. Acemoglu, Daron & Rafey, Will, 2023. "Mirage on the horizon: Geoengineering and carbon taxation without commitment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    5. Gregory Casey, 2024. "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(1), pages 192-228.
    6. Ufuk Akcigit & William R. Kerr, 2018. "Growth through Heterogeneous Innovations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1374-1443.
    7. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & Harun Alp & Nicholas Bloom & William Kerr, 2018. "Innovation, Reallocation, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(11), pages 3450-3491, November.
    8. Gillingham, Kenneth & Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2008. "Modeling endogenous technological change for climate policy analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2734-2753, November.
    9. Óscar Afonso & Liliana Fonseca & Manuela Magalhães & Paulo B. Vasconcelos, 2021. "Directed technical change and environmental quality," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(1), pages 71-97, January.
    10. Hémous, David, 2016. "The dynamic impact of unilateral environmental policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 80-95.
    11. Ted Temzelides & Borghan Narajabad & Bernardino Adao, 2016. "Renewable Technology Adoption and the Macroeconomy," 2016 Meeting Papers 6, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Raphael Calel & Antoine Dechezleprêtre, 2016. "Environmental Policy and Directed Technological Change: Evidence from the European Carbon Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 173-191, March.
    13. Mikhail Golosov & John Hassler & Per Krusell & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2014. "Optimal Taxes on Fossil Fuel in General Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(1), pages 41-88, January.
    14. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2013_028 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Hassler, J. & Krusell, P. & Smith, A.A., 2016. "Environmental Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1893-2008, Elsevier.
    16. Ufuk Akcigit & William R. Kerr, 2018. "Growth through Heterogeneous Innovations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1374-1443.
    17. Richard S.J. Tol, 2018. "Energy and Climate," Working Paper Series 1618, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    18. Lint Barrage, 2019. "The Nobel Memorial Prize for William D. Nordhaus," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(3), pages 884-924, July.
    19. Zohal Hessami, 2016. "How Do Voters React to Complex Choices in a Direct Democracy? Evidence from Switzerland," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(2), pages 263-293, May.
    20. Yang, Jun & Yang, Dingjian & Cheng, Jixin, 2024. "The non-rivalry of data, directed technical change and the environment: A theoretical study incorporating data as a production factor," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 417-448.
    21. van den Bijgaart, Inge, 2017. "The unilateral implementation of a sustainable growth path with directed technical change," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 305-327.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    carbon cycle; directed technological change; environment; innovation; optimal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pit:wpaper:534. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/depghus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.