[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pav/demwpp/demwp0182.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modeling Risk Contagion in the Italian Zonal Electricity Market

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Felix Ahelegbey

    (Università di Pavia)

  • Emmanuel Senyo Fianu

    (University Lüneburg)

  • Luigi Grossi

    (Università di Verona)

Abstract
Ensuring the security of stable, e?cient, and reliable energy supplies has intensi?ed the interconnections among energy markets. Imbalances between supply and demand due to operational failures, congestions and other sources of risk faced by these connections can lead to a system that is vulnerable to the spread of risk and its spill-over. The main contribution of this paper lies in the adoption of recently proposed network models in an innovative way, which enhances the proper analysis of these market connections. The case of the Italian energy market is studied because it is a clear example of a zonal market where risk can spread across connected zones. We estimate within-day and across-day zonal market interconnections with a multivariate time series of hourly prices, forecast demand and wind generation over the period 2010 – 2016 and evaluate the dynamics and persistence of zonal market connections examining the central market and the spread of risk in the zones of the Italian electricity market. Our ?ndings show that models based purely on prices give a better and more accurate explanation of risk contagion than models with exogenous regressors, revealing that the Central North and Central South zones are the most in?uential in terms of hub centrality for intraday and inter-day risk transmission, respectively, in the Italian energy market.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Felix Ahelegbey & Emmanuel Senyo Fianu & Luigi Grossi, 2020. "Modeling Risk Contagion in the Italian Zonal Electricity Market," DEM Working Papers Series 182, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:pav:demwpp:demwp0182
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dem-web.unipv.it/web/docs/dipeco/quad/ps/RePEc/pav/demwpp/DEMWP0182.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sébastien Phan & Fabien Roques, 2015. "Is the Depressive Effect of Renewables on Power Prices Contagious? A Cross Border Econometric Analysis," Working Papers EPRG 1517, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    2. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    3. Gianfreda, Angelica & Grossi, Luigi, 2012. "Forecasting Italian electricity zonal prices with exogenous variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2228-2239.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2015. "Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(2), pages 564-608, February.
    5. Martens, Martin & van Dijk, Dick, 2007. "Measuring volatility with the realized range," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 181-207, May.
    6. Cappers, Peter & MacDonald, Jason & Goldman, Charles & Ma, Ookie, 2013. "An assessment of market and policy barriers for demand response providing ancillary services in U.S. electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1031-1039.
    7. Boffa, Federico & Pingali, Viswanath & Vannoni, Davide, 2010. "Increasing market interconnection: An analysis of the Italian electricity spot market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 311-322, May.
    8. Delphine Lautier and Franck Raynaud, 2012. "Systemic Risk in Energy Derivative Markets: A Graph-Theory Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    9. David Wozabal & Christoph Graf & David Hirschmann, 2016. "The effect of intermittent renewables on the electricity price variance," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 38(3), pages 687-709, July.
    10. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    11. Anna Cretì & Fulvio Fontini, 2019. "Economics of Electricity. Markets, Competition and Rules," Post-Print hal-02304345, HAL.
    12. Grossi, Luigi & Nan, Fany, 2019. "Robust forecasting of electricity prices: Simulations, models and the impact of renewable sources," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 305-318.
    13. Cretì,Anna & Fontini,Fulvio, 2019. "Economics of Electricity," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781316636626.
    14. Daniel Felix Ahelegbey & Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2016. "Bayesian Graphical Models for STructural Vector Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 357-386, March.
    15. Delphine Lautier & Franck Raynaud, 2012. "Systemic risk in energy derivative markets: a graph theory analysis," Post-Print halshs-00738201, HAL.
    16. Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix, 2015. "The Econometrics of Bayesian Graphical Models: A Review With Financial Application," MPRA Paper 92634, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Apr 2016.
    17. Lamadrid, Alberto J. & Mount, Tim, 2012. "Ancillary services in systems with high penetrations of renewable energy sources, the case of ramping," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1959-1971.
    18. Thao Pham, 2019. "Do German renewable energy resources affect prices and mitigate market power in the French electricity market ?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(54), pages 5829-5842, November.
    19. Daniel Felix Ahelegbey & Paolo Giudici, 2014. "Hierarchical Graphical Models, With Application To Systemic Risk," DEM Working Papers Series 063, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    20. Pierret, D., 2013. "The systemic risk of energy markets," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2013061, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    21. Sapio, Alessandro & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2020. "The effect of a new power cable on energy prices volatility spillovers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    22. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    23. Thao Pham, 2019. "Do German renewable energy resources affect prices and mitigate market power in the French electricity market ?," Post-Print hal-02570803, HAL.
    24. Weron, Rafal, 2000. "Energy price risk management," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 127-134.
    25. Caldana, Ruggero & Fusai, Gianluca & Roncoroni, Andrea, 2017. "Electricity forward curves with thin granularity: Theory and empirical evidence in the hourly EPEXspot market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 261(2), pages 715-734.
    26. Francesco Lisi and Enrico Edoli, 2018. "Analyzing and Forecasting Zonal Imbalance Signs in the Italian Electricity Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    27. Davide Ciferri & Maria Chiara D’Errico & Paolo Polinori, 2020. "Integration and convergence in European electricity markets," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(2), pages 463-492, July.
    28. Christoph Graf & Federico Quaglia & Frank A. Wolak, 2020. "Simplified Electricity Market Models with Significant Intermittent Renewable Capacity: Evidence from Italy," NBER Working Papers 27262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Rafal Weron, 2014. "A review of electricity price forecasting: The past, the present and the future," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    30. Sébastien Phan & Fabien Roques, 2015. "Is the depressive effect of renewables on power prices contagious? A cross border econometric analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1527, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    31. Stefan Trück & Rafał Weron, 2016. "Convenience Yields and Risk Premiums in the EU‐ETS—Evidence from the Kyoto Commitment Period," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 587-611, June.
    32. Glasserman, Paul & Young, H. Peyton, 2016. "Contagion in financial networks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68681, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    33. Sapio, Alessandro, 2019. "Greener, more integrated, and less volatile? A quantile regression analysis of Italian wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 452-469.
    34. Daniel Felix Ahelegbey & Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2016. "Sparse Graphical Vector Autoregression: A Bayesian Approach," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 123-124, pages 333-361.
    35. Bigerna, Simona & Bollino, Carlo Andrea, 2016. "Ramsey prices in the Italian electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 603-612.
    36. Paul Glasserman & H. Peyton Young, 2016. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(3), pages 779-831, September.
    37. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    38. Creti, Anna & Fumagalli, Eileen & Fumagalli, Elena, 2010. "Integration of electricity markets in Europe: Relevant issues for Italy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6966-6976, November.
    39. de Menezes, Lilian M. & Houllier, Melanie A., 2015. "Germany's nuclear power plant closures and the integration of electricity markets in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 357-368.
    40. Bigerna, Simona & Bollino, Carlo Andrea & Ciferri, Davide & Polinori, Paolo, 2017. "Renewables diffusion and contagion effect in Italian regional electricity markets: Assessment and policy implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 199-211.
    41. repec:dau:papers:123456789/9709 is not listed on IDEAS
    42. Joachim Bertsch, & Tom Brown & Simeon Hagspiel & Lisa Just, 2017. "The relevance of grid expansion under zonal markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    43. Daniel Felix Ahelegbey & Paolo Giudici, 2014. "Bayesian Selection of Systemic Risk Networks," Advances in Econometrics, in: Bayesian Model Comparison, volume 34, pages 117-153, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    44. Sapio, Alessandro & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2016. "Price regimes in an energy island: Tacit collusion vs. cost and network explanations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 157-172.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Silvia Golia & Luigi Grossi & Matteo Pelagatti, 2022. "Machine Learning Models and Intra-Daily Market Information for the Prediction of Italian Electricity Prices," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Leong, Soon Heng & Urga, Giovanni, 2023. "A practical multivariate approach to testing volatility spillover," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel Felix Ahelegbey & Luis Carvalho & Eric D. Kolaczyk, 2020. "A Bayesian Covariance Graph And Latent Position Model For Multivariate Financial Time Series," DEM Working Papers Series 181, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    2. Agosto, Arianna & Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix & Giudici, Paolo, 2020. "Tree networks to assess financial contagion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 349-366.
    3. Daniel Felix Ahelegbey, 2015. "The Econometrics of Networks: A Review," Working Papers 2015:13, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    4. Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix & Giudici, Paolo & Hashem, Shatha Qamhieh, 2021. "Network VAR models to measure financial contagion," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    5. Sapio, Alessandro & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2020. "The effect of a new power cable on energy prices volatility spillovers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    6. Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix, 2015. "The Econometrics of Bayesian Graphical Models: A Review With Financial Application," MPRA Paper 92634, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Apr 2016.
    7. Daniel Felix Ahelegbey & Paolo Giudici, 2020. "Market Risk, Connectedness and Turbulence: A Comparison of 21st Century Financial Crises," DEM Working Papers Series 188, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    8. Beltrami, Filippo & Fontini, Fulvio & Grossi, Luigi, 2021. "The value of carbon emission reduction induced by Renewable Energy Sources in the Italian power market," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    9. Andrieş, Alin Marius & Ongena, Steven & Sprincean, Nicu & Tunaru, Radu, 2022. "Risk spillovers and interconnectedness between systemically important institutions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    10. Sapio, Alessandro, 2019. "Greener, more integrated, and less volatile? A quantile regression analysis of Italian wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 452-469.
    11. Casarin, Roberto & Costola, Michele & Yenerdag, Erdem, 2018. "Financial bridges and network communities," SAFE Working Paper Series 208, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2018.
    12. Shakya, Shasta, 2022. "Geographic networks and spillovers between banks," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    13. Danau, Daniel, 2020. "Prudence and preference for flexibility gain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(2), pages 776-785.
    14. Tan T. M. Le & Franck Martin & Duc K. Nguyen, 2018. "Dynamic connectedness of global currencies: a conditional Granger-causality approach," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes & University of Caen) 2018-04, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes, University of Caen and CNRS.
    15. Jose Arreola Hernandez & Sang Hoon Kang & Ron P. McIver & Seong-Min Yoon, 2021. "Network Interdependence and Optimization of Bank Portfolios from Developed and Emerging Asia Pacific Countries," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(4), pages 613-647, December.
    16. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Costola, Michele & Iacopini, Matteo, 2024. "COVID-19 spreading in financial networks: A semiparametric matrix regression model," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 113-131.
    17. Everett Grant & Julieta Yung, 2017. "The Double-Edged Sword of Global Integration: Robustness, Fragility & Contagion in the International Firm Network," Globalization Institute Working Papers 313, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    18. Covi, Giovanni & Gorpe, Mehmet Ziya & Kok, Christoffer, 2021. "CoMap: Mapping Contagion in the Euro Area Banking Sector," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    19. Yun, Tae-Sub & Jeong, Deokjong & Park, Sunyoung, 2019. "“Too central to fail” systemic risk measure using PageRank algorithm," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 251-272.
    20. Daniel Felix Ahelegbey & Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2016. "Sparse Graphical Vector Autoregression: A Bayesian Approach," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 123-124, pages 333-361.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian inference; complex networks; energy prices; market e?ciency; systemic risk; volatility; zonal power market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pav:demwpp:demwp0182. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alice Albonico (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dppavit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.