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Trade Liberalization in General Equilibrium: Intertemporal and Inter-Industry Effects

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  • Lawrence H. Goulder
  • Barry Eichengreen
Abstract
This paper uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to simulate the effects of unilateral reductions by the U.S. in tariffs and "voluntary" export restraints (VER's). We consider 50 percent cuts in tariffs and in ad valorem VER equivalents, separately and in combination. The model features intertemporal optimization by households and firms, explicit adjustment dynamics, an integrated treatment of the current and capital accounts of the balance of payments, and industry disaggregation. Central findings include: (1) VER's are considerably more significant than tariffs in terms of the magnitude of the macroeconomic effects induced by their reduction; (2) while VER reductions enhance domestic welfare, unilateral tariff cuts reduce domestic welfare (as a consequence of U.S. monopsony power and associated adverse terms of trade effects); (3) international capital movements critically regulate the responses of the U.S. and foreign economies to these trade initiatives and produce significant differences between short and long-run effects; and (4) effects differ substantially across industries. Together, these findings indicate that simulation analyses that disregard international capital movements, adjustment dynamics, and industry differences may generate seriously misleading results.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawrence H. Goulder & Barry Eichengreen, 1989. "Trade Liberalization in General Equilibrium: Intertemporal and Inter-Industry Effects," NBER Working Papers 2965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2965
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    1. Keuschnigg, Christian & Kohler, Wilhelm, 1996. "Commercial policy and dynamic adjustment under monopolistic competition," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-4), pages 373-409, May.
    2. Warwick. J. McKibbin, "undated". "Quantifying APEC Trade Liberalization: A Dynamic Analysis," Discussion Papers 122, Brookings Institution International Economics.
    3. Gabrielle Antille & Fabrizio Carlevaro & Nicolas Schmitt & Simon Fraser, 1990. "Europe 1992 and Beyond: Towards a Quantitative General Equilibrium Assessment for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 126(III), pages 193-213, September.
    4. Dissou, Yazid & Mac Leod, Carolyn & Souissi, Mokhtar, 2002. "Compliance costs to the Kyoto Protocol and market structure in Canada: a dynamic general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(7-8), pages 751-779, November.
    5. repec:got:cegedp:39 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Walmsley, Terrie, 1998. "Long Run Simulations With GTAP: Illustrative Results from APEC Trade Liberalisation," GTAP Technical Papers 312, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    7. Francois, Joseph & Bradley McDonald, 1996. "Liberalization and Capital Accumulation in the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 310, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    8. AKITOBY, Bernardin, 1997. "Rigidité normale, dévaluation et équilibre général intertemporel," Cahiers de recherche 9708, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    9. Klepper, Gernot & Lorz, Jens Oliver & Stähler, Frank & Thiele, Rainer & Wiebelt, Manfred, 1993. "Empirische allgemeine Gleichgewichts-Modelle: Struktur und Anwendungsmöglichkeiten," Kiel Working Papers 595, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Aremo Adeleke Gabriel, 2013. "Trade Liberalisation, Economic Growth and Human Resource Development in Nigeria: Causal Implications (1980-2009)," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(10), pages 696-707.
    11. Marouani, Mohamed A., 2005. "The Impact of the Multifiber Agreement Phaseout on Unemployment in Tunisia: A Prospective Dynamic Analysis," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 39, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    12. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4345 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Mohamed Ali Marouani, 2007. "Is the End of the MFA a threat for the Tunisian Economy?," Working Papers DT/2007/05, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    14. Robinson, Sherman & Kilkenny, Maureen & Hanson, Kenneth, 1990. "The USDA/ERS Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model of the United States," Staff Reports 278341, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    15. Willenbockel, Dirk, 1999. "Dynamic applied general equilibrium trade policy analysis in the presence of foreign asset cross-ownership," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 371-388, August.
    16. Carlos E. Zarazaga, 2000. "Measuring the benefits of unilateral trade liberalization; part 2: dynamic models," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q1, pages 29-39.
    17. Vinokurov, Evgeny & Demidenko, Mikhail & Pelipas, Igor & Tochitskaya, Irina & Shymanovich, Gleb & Lipin, Andrey & Movchan, Veronika, 2015. "Estimating the Economic Effects of Reducing Non-Tariff Barriers in the EEU," MPRA Paper 68058, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Lolos, Sarantis & Suwa-Eisenmann, Akiko & Zonzilos, Nicholas & Bourguignon, Francois, 1995. "Evaluating the CSF with an extended computable general equilibrium model: The case of Greece (1988-1995)," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 177-197, April.
    19. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1998. "Dynamic trade liberalization analysis: steady state, transitional and inter-industry effects," Working Paper Series WP-98-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

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