[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/2814.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Tax Policy, Housing Prices, and Housing Investment

Author

Listed:
  • Lawrence H. Goulder
Abstract
This paper employs a general equilibrium model to assess the effects of major components of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 on the performance of housing and other industries. The model considers both short-term and long-term effects on housing demands, house values, and investment in housing. Model results indicate that in the short run, the recent cuts incorporate tax rates, elimination of investment tax credits, and scaling back of depreciation deductions together have negative implications for investment in non-residential capital but positive effects on housing investment. This mainly reflects the fact that prior to the '86 tax reforms, investment tax credits and favorable depreciation rules disproportionately benefited non-housing industries; thus their removal especially affects industries other than housing and helps ?crowd in housing investment. Over the long term, however, the tax changes imply lower investment in housing as well as in other types of capital. The reduced housing investment stems from adverse effects of the reforms on aggregate output and real income.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawrence H. Goulder, 1989. "Tax Policy, Housing Prices, and Housing Investment," NBER Working Papers 2814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2814
    Note: PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2814.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James M. Poterba, 1983. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset Market Approach," Working papers 339, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    2. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-1185, July.
    3. Lawrence H. Goulder & Barry Eichengreen, 1989. "Savings Promotion, Investment Promotion, and International Competitiveness," NBER Chapters, in: Trade Policies for International Competitiveness, pages 5-52, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Don Fullerton & Andrew B. Lyon, 1988. "Tax Neutrality and Intangible Capital," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy: Volume 2, pages 63-88, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Hamilton, Bob & Whalley, John, 1985. "Tax treatment of housing in a dynamic sequenced general equilibrium model," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 157-175, July.
    6. Robert E. Hall, 1985. "Real Interest and Consumption," NBER Working Papers 1694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Alan J. Auerbach, 1983. "Corporate Taxation in the United States," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(2), pages 451-514.
    8. James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "The Economic Effects of Dividend Taxation," NBER Working Papers 1353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Rosen, Harvey S & Rosen, Kenneth T, 1980. "Federal Taxes and Homeownership: Evidence from Time Series," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 59-75, February.
    10. Goulder, Lawrence H. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1989. "Tax policy, asset prices, and growth : A general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 265-296, April.
    11. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    12. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    13. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    14. repec:bla:scandj:v:88:y:1986:i:2:p:355-77 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Henderson, J Vernon & Ioannides, Yannis M, 1983. "A Model of Housing Tenure Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 98-113, March.
    16. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
    17. Robert E. Lucas & Jr., 1967. "Adjustment Costs and the Theory of Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 321-321.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrea J. Heuson & Gary Painter, 2011. "The Impact of the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 on Housing Turnover in the U.S. Single Family Residential Market," Working Paper 8509, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    2. Goulder, Lawrence H. & Thalmann, Philippe, 1993. "Approaches to efficient capital taxation : Leveling the playing field vs. living by the golden rule," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 169-196, February.
    3. Skinner, Jonathan, 1996. "The dynamic efficiency cost of not taxing housing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 397-417, March.
    4. Zhicheng Zhou & Prapatchon Jariyapan, 2013. "The impact of macroeconomic policies to real estate market in People's Republic of China," The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, vol. 2(3), pages 75-92, September.
    5. John W. Diamond & George R. Zodrow, 2006. "Economic Effects of a Personal Capital Income Tax Add-On to a Consumption Tax," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0629, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    6. Hui An & Qianmiao Zou & Ying Zhang & Rakesh Gupta, 2019. "Property Prices: How Effective is a Property-Purchasing Limitation Policy for Managing Affordability?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 22(2), pages 197-229.
    7. Okumura, Tsunao, 1997. "Housing Investment and Residential Land Supply in Japan: An Asset Market Approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 27-54, March.
    8. Keuschnigg, Christian & Nielsen, Soren Bo, 1996. "Housing markets and vacant land," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1731-1762.
    9. Josep Maria Raya Vilchez & Aleksander Kucel, 2023. "How fiscal policy affects housing market dynamics: Evidence from Spain," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(2), pages 323-347, April.
    10. John Diamond, 2005. "Dynamic Effects of Extending the 2001 and 2003 Income Tax Cuts," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 12(2), pages 165-192, March.
    11. Laurence S. Seidman & Kenneth A. Lewis, 1997. "The Design of a Tax Rule for Owner-Occuped Housing Under a Personal Consumption Tax," Public Finance Review, , vol. 25(1), pages 5-24, January.
    12. Skinner, Jonathan, 1989. "Housing wealth and aggregate saving," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 305-324, May.
    13. Anderson, John E. & Roy, Atrayee Ghosh, 2001. "Eliminating Housing Tax Preferences: A Distributional Analysis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 41-58, March.
    14. Lawrence H. Goulder, 1993. "Energy Taxes: Traditional Efficiency Effects and Environmental Implications," NBER Working Papers 4582, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Benjamin S. Kay, 2015. "The Effects of Housing Adjustment Costs on Consumption Dynamics," Staff Discussion Papers 15-03, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    16. Leung, Charles, 2004. "Macroeconomics and housing: a review of the literature," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 249-267, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Goulder, Lawrence H. & Thalmann, Philippe, 1993. "Approaches to efficient capital taxation : Leveling the playing field vs. living by the golden rule," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 169-196, February.
    2. Lawrence H. Goulder & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Trade Liberalization in General Equilibrium: Intertemporal and Inter-industry Effects," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 253-280, May.
    3. Skinner, Jonathan, 1996. "The dynamic efficiency cost of not taxing housing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 397-417, March.
    4. Goulder, Lawrence H. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1989. "Tax policy, asset prices, and growth : A general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 265-296, April.
    5. Berkovec, James & Fullerton, Don, 1989. "The General Equilibrium Effects of Inflation on Housing Consumption and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 277-282, May.
    6. Lawrence H. Goulder & Barry Eichengreen, 1989. "Savings Promotion, Investment Promotion, and International Competitiveness," NBER Chapters, in: Trade Policies for International Competitiveness, pages 5-52, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. A. Lans Bovenberg & Lawrence H. Goulder, 1989. "Promoting Investment under International Capital Mobility: An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Analysis," NBER Working Papers 3139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Keuschnigg, Christian, 1991. "How to compute perfect foresight equilibria," Discussion Papers, Series II 150, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    9. James M. Poterba, 1990. "Taxation and Housing Markets: Preliminary Evidence on the Effects of Recent Tax Reforms," NBER Working Papers 3270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Lee, Gabriel S., 1999. "Housing Investment Dynamics, Period of Production, and Adjustment Costs," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, March.
    11. Rodriguez, J. & Barrios, J., 2004. "Politica fiscal de vivienda en España y forma de tenencia de la vivienda habitual: una valoracion empirica a nivel provincial," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(2).
    12. Bettendorf, Leon, 1998. "Investment-Promoting Policies in the Presence of International Interactions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 715-740, December.
    13. Antonia Diaz & Maria Jose Luengo Prado, 2008. "On the User Cost and Homeownership," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 584-613, July.
    14. Francisco A. Gallego & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2004. "General Equilibrium Dynamics of External Shocks and Policy Changes in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 271, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Austan Goolsbee, 1997. "Investment Tax Incentives, Prices, and the Supply of Capital Goods," NBER Working Papers 6192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2005. "Taxes, Regulations, and the Value of U.S. and U.K. Corporations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 767-796.
    17. Pezzey, John C.V., 2001. "Distributing the Value of a Country’s Tradeable Carbon Permits," 2001 Conference (45th), January 23-25, 2001, Adelaide, Australia 125832, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    18. Edward L. Glaeser & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2003. "The Benefits of the Home Mortgage Interest Deduction," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 17, pages 37-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Alan J. Auerbach, 2006. "Who Bears the Corporate Tax? A Review of What We Know," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 20, pages 1-40, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Francisco Gallego & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2005. "General Equilibrium Dynamics of Foreign Shocks ans Policy Changes in Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rómulo A. Chumacero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (S (ed.),General Equilibrium Models for the Chilean Economy, edition 1, volume 9, chapter 4, pages 113-162, Central Bank of Chile.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2814. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.