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Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief: Consumer Bankruptcy Protections in the Great Recession

Author

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  • Adrien Auclert
  • Will S. Dobbie
  • Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
Abstract
This paper argues that the debt forgiveness provided by the U.S. consumer bankruptcy system helped stabilize employment levels during the Great Recession. We document that over this period, states with more generous bankruptcy exemptions had significantly smaller declines in non-tradable employment and larger increases in unsecured debt write-downs compared to states with less generous exemptions. We interpret these reduced form estimates as the relative effect of debt relief across states, and develop a general equilibrium model to recover the aggregate employment effect. The model yields three key results. First, substantial nominal rigidities are required to rationalize our reduced form estimates. Second, with monetary policy at the zero lower bound, traded good demand spillovers across states boosted employment everywhere. Finally, the ex-post debt forgiveness provided by the consumer bankruptcy system during the Great Recession increased aggregate employment by almost two percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrien Auclert & Will S. Dobbie & Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief: Consumer Bankruptcy Protections in the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 25685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25685
    Note: CF EFG IFM ME
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    Cited by:

    1. Òscar Jordà & Martin Kornejew & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2022. "Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(10), pages 4561-4586.
    2. Benjamin J. Keys & Neale Mahoney & Hanbin Yang, 2020. "What Determines Consumer Financial Distress? Place- and Person-Based Factors," NBER Working Papers 26808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. António R. Antunes & Tiago Cavalcanti, 2019. "Tighter Credit and Consumer Bankruptcy Insurance," Working Papers w201921, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    4. Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit, 2021. "Debt relief and slow recovery: A decade after Lehman," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1036-1059.
    5. Exler, Florian & Tertilt, Michèle, 2020. "Consumer Debt and Default: A Macro Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 12966, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Catherine, Sylvain & Yannelis, Constantine, 2023. "The distributional effects of student loan forgiveness," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 297-316.
    7. Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel, 2020. "Regional data in macroeconomics: Some advice for practitioners," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    8. Gerald Carlino & Thorsten Drautzburg & Robert Inman & Nicholas Zarra, 2023. "Partisanship and Fiscal Policy in Economic Unions: Evidence from US States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(3), pages 701-737, March.
    9. Tertilt, Michèle & Exler, Florian, 2020. "Consumer Debt and Default: A Macroeconomic Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 14425, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Sean Chanwook Lee & Omeed Maghzian, 2023. "Household Liquidity and Macroeconomic Stabilization: Evidence from Mortgage Forbearance," Working Papers 23-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    11. Soyoung Lee, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief Policies During Recessions," Staff Working Papers 23-48, Bank of Canada.
    12. Greg Buchak & Gregor Matvos & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru, 2024. "Beyond the Balance Sheet Model of Banking: Implications for Bank Regulation and Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(2), pages 616-693.
    13. Pauline Carry, 2022. "The Effects of the Legal Minimum Working Time on Workers, Firms and the Labor Market," Working Papers hal-04067393, HAL.
    14. Pauline Carry, 2022. "The Effects of the Legal Minimum Working Time on Workers, Firms and the Labor Market," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-04067393, HAL.
    15. Higgins, Brian E., 2024. "Mortgage borrowing limits and house prices: evidence from a policy change in Ireland," Working Paper Series 2909, European Central Bank.
    16. Adejare Yusuff Aremu & Shahzad Arfan, 2023. "Factors Influencing the Usage of E-Business to Improve SME Performance," International Journal of E-Business Research (IJEBR), IGI Global, vol. 19(1), pages 1-16, January.
    17. Braun, Martin & Verdier, Valentin, 2023. "Estimation of spillover effects with matched data or longitudinal network data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(2), pages 689-714.
    18. Pattison, Nathaniel, 2020. "Consumption smoothing and debtor protections," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    19. Carlino, Gerald & Drautzburg, Thorsten & Inman, Robert & Zarra, Nicholas, 2020. "Partisanship and Fiscal Policy in Federal Unions: Evidence from US States," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224550, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Plamen T. Nenov & Alp Simsek, 2021. "Stock Market Wealth and the Real Economy: A Local Labor Market Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(5), pages 1613-1657, May.
    21. Donghoon Lee & Daniel Mangrum & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Crystal Wang, 2024. "Financial Education and Household Financial Decisions During the Pandemic," Staff Reports 1131, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    22. Moritz Schularick, 2021. "Corporate indebtedness and macroeconomic stabilisation from a long-term perspective," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 024, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • K35 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Personal Bankruptcy Law

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