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Partisanship and Fiscal Policy in Federal Unions: Evidence from US States

Author

Listed:
  • Carlino, Gerald
  • Drautzburg, Thorsten
  • Inman, Robert
  • Zarra, Nicholas
Abstract
In federal countries, such as the U.S., the fiscal authority consists not of one, but many governments, with state governments accounting for a sizable share of expenditures. We analyze how state partisanship of politicians affects state fiscal policy and quantify the possible macroeconomic consequences for federal fiscal policy. First, using data from close elections, we find strong partisanship effects in the marginal propensity to spend federal transfers, the so-called y-paper effect: Republican governors spend less. Second, this partisan difference has increased over time and is correlated with the political polarization of federal policymakers. Third, we calibrate a two-agent New Keynesian model of Republican and Democratic states in an open economy monetary union, calibrated to deliver defense spending multipliers as in the literature. Lowering back partisan differences to the less-polarized pre-Reagan era would increase the transfer multiplier by about 30 cents per dollar, and variation in governor's partisan composition similarly lead to variation in the multiplier of around to 20 cents. Fourth, we provide direct support for the structural model's partisan predictions using local-projection methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlino, Gerald & Drautzburg, Thorsten & Inman, Robert & Zarra, Nicholas, 2020. "Partisanship and Fiscal Policy in Federal Unions: Evidence from US States," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224550, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc20:224550
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/224550/1/vfs-2020-pid-39257.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gerald Carlino & Thorsten Drautzburg & Robert Inman & Nicholas Zarra, 2023. "Partisanship and Fiscal Policy in Economic Unions: Evidence from US States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(3), pages 701-737, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    partisanship; flypaper effect; intergovernmental transfers; fiscal multiplier; monetary union; regression discontinuity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism

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