[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nav/ecupna/1503.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Entry and exit in recent US business cycles

Author

Abstract
I show evidence indicating that the variability of the total number of business units (establishments) has significantly increased in recent US business cycles, accounting for nearly 2/3 of real GDP fluctuations during the 2003-2012 decade. Next, I examine the role of business creation and destruction in an estimated DSGE-style model extended with endogenous entry and exit. Shocks on both entry and, especially, exit have played a crucial role on explaining the latest boom-bust cycle in the US economy. I also find that the estimated innovations of total factor productivity are positive and high in 2010-2012, which might be the consequence of the dramatic increase in the exit rates observed during the recession of 2008-2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikel Casares, 2015. "Entry and exit in recent US business cycles," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 1503, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
  • Handle: RePEc:nav:ecupna:1503
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www2.unavarra.es/gesadj/depEconomia/documentos-trabajo/2015/DT1503.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2005. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 865-915.
    2. Masashige Hamano & Francesco Zanetti, 2017. "Endogenous Turnover and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 263-279, October.
    3. Peter N. Ireland, 2007. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 1851-1882, December.
    4. Florin O. Bilbiie & Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2012. "Endogenous Entry, Product Variety, and Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 304-345.
    5. Gian Luca Clementi & Berardino Palazzo, 2016. "Entry, Exit, Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Fluctuations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 1-41, July.
    6. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2010. "Product Creation and Destruction: Evidence and Price Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 691-723, June.
    7. Jeffrey Campbell, 1998. "Entry, Exit, Embodied Technology, and Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 371-408, April.
    8. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    9. Raj Chetty, 2012. "Bounds on Elasticities With Optimization Frictions: A Synthesis of Micro and Macro Evidence on Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(3), pages 969-1018, May.
    10. Jaimovich, Nir & Floetotto, Max, 2008. "Firm dynamics, markup variations, and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1238-1252, October.
    11. Roberto M. Samaniego, 2008. "Entry, Exit and Business Cycles in a General Equilibrium Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 529-541, July.
    12. Lewis, Vivien & Poilly, Céline, 2012. "Firm entry, markups and the monetary transmission mechanism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 670-685.
    13. Lewis, Vivien & Stevens, Arnoud, 2015. "Entry and markup dynamics in an estimated business cycle model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 14-35.
    14. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    15. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    16. Goodfriend, Marvin & McCallum, Bennett T., 2007. "Banking and interest rates in monetary policy analysis: A quantitative exploration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1480-1507, July.
    17. Miguel Casares & Jean-Christophe Poutineau, 2014. "A DSGE model with endogenous entry and exit," Carleton Economic Papers 14-06, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    18. Hopenhayn, Hugo A, 1992. "Entry, Exit, and Firm Dynamics in Long Run Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1127-1150, September.
    19. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    20. Cavallari, Lilia, 2015. "Entry costs and the dynamics of business formation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 312-326.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Miguel Casares Polo & Hashmat Khan & Jean-Christophe Poutineau, 2018. "A structural analysis of US entry and exit dynamics," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 1801, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
    2. Rossi, Lorenza, 2019. "The overshooting of firms’ destruction, banks and productivity shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 136-155.
    3. Casares, Miguel & Khan, Hashmat & Poutineau, Jean-Christophe, 2020. "The extensive margin and US aggregate fluctuations: A quantitative assessment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    4. Miguel Casares & Jean-Christophe Poutineau, 2014. "A DSGE model with endogenous entry and exit," Carleton Economic Papers 14-06, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    5. Masashige Hamano & Francesco Zanetti, 2017. "Endogenous Turnover and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 263-279, October.
    6. Andrea Colciago & Vivien Lewis & Branka Matyska, 2023. "Corporate taxes, productivity, and business dynamism," Working Papers 512, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised May 2023.
    7. Hartwig, Benny & Lieberknecht, Philipp, 2020. "Monetary policy, firm exit and productivity," Discussion Papers 61/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Offick, Sven & Winkler, Roland C., 2019. "Endogenous Firm Entry In An Estimated Model Of The U.S. Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 284-321, January.
    9. Florin O. Bilbiie & Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2012. "Endogenous Entry, Product Variety, and Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 304-345.
    10. Hamano, Masashige & Zanetti, Francesco, 2022. "Monetary policy, firm heterogeneity, and product variety," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    11. Savagar, Anthony, 2021. "Measured productivity with endogenous markups and economic profits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Cavallari, Lilia & Romano, Simone & Naticchioni, Paolo, 2021. "The original sin: Firms’ dynamics and the life-cycle consequences of economic conditions at birth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    13. Stefano Fasani & Haroon Mumtaz & Lorenza Rossi, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Firm Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 278-296, January.
    14. Lorenza Rossi, 2016. "Productivity Shocks and Uncertainty Shocks in a Model with Endogenous Firms Exit and Inefficient Banks," DEM Working Papers Series 128, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    15. Poutineau, Jean-Christophe & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2015. "Financial frictions and the extensive margin of activity," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(4), pages 525-554.
    16. Lorenza Rossi, 2015. "Endogenous Firms' ?Exit, Inefficient Banks and Business Cycle Dynamics," Working Papers LuissLab 15117, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    17. Brand, Thomas & Isoré, Marlène & Tripier, Fabien, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks and firm creation: Search and monitoring in the credit market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 19-53.
    18. Fabio Ghironi, 2018. "Macro needs micro," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(1-2), pages 195-218.
    19. V. Lewis & C. Poilly, 2011. "Firm Entry, Inflation and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/705, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    20. Brand, Thomas & Isoré, Marlène & Tripier, Fabien, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks and firm creation: Search and monitoring in the credit market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 19-53.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Entry and exit; DSGE models; US business cycles;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nav:ecupna:1503. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Javier Puértolas (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.unavarra.es/departamento-economia .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.