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Measured Productivity with Endogenous Markups and Economic Profits

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  • Anthony Savagar

    (University of Kent)

Abstract
I show that sluggish variation in firm entry over the business cycle can account for significant variation in measured TFP through profit and markup channels. I develop a model of dynamic firm entry, oligopolistic competition and returns to scale in order to decompose TFP fluctuations into technical change, economic profit and markup fluctuations. I show that economic profits cause short-run upward bias in measured TFP, but this subsides to upward bias from endogenous markups as firm entry adjusts. I analyze dynamics analytically through a nonparametric DGE model that allows for a perfect com-petition equilibrium such that there are no biases in measured TFP. Given market power, simulations show that measured TFP is 40%higher than technology in the short-run, due solely to profits, and 20% higher in the long-run due solely to markups. The speed of firm adjustment (‘business dynamism’) will determine importance of each bias.

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  • Anthony Savagar, 2019. "Measured Productivity with Endogenous Markups and Economic Profits," 2019 Meeting Papers 819, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed019:819
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    Cited by:

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    4. Federico Etro, 2018. "Macroeconomics with Endogenous Markups and Optimal Taxation," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(2), pages 378-406, October.

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

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