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‘It’s a trap!’ The degree of poverty persistence in Italy and Europe

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  • Elena Giarda
  • Gloria Moroni
Abstract
This paper analyses poverty persistence in Italy and compares it with France, Greece, Portugal, Spain and the United Kingdom, focusing on its dynamics through the analysis of transitions into and out of poverty and the econometric quantification of true state dependence. The analysis is performed on the longitudinal component of the EU-SILC for the period 2009-2012. Descriptive statistics and transition matrices reveal that households in Italy are characterised by a higher degree of poverty persistence than in other countries. This evidence is confirmed by the estimation of Heckman’s dynamic random effects probit model. Italy is the country with the highest level of true state dependence estimated at 0.26, after Greece (0.30), while the UK has the lowest value (0.07). Italy also shows an impact of individual characteristics on current poverty lower, in absolute terms, than the lagged dependent variable. This may explain the gap in the persistent to current poverty ratio between Italy and other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Giarda & Gloria Moroni, 2015. "‘It’s a trap!’ The degree of poverty persistence in Italy and Europe," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0055, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    • Handle: RePEc:mod:wcefin:0055
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    poverty; dynamic probit models; state dependence; EU-SILC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

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