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Fertility after The Drought: Theory and Evidence from Madagascar

Author

Listed:
  • Sylvain Dessy
  • Francesca Marchetta
  • Roland Pongou
  • Luca Tiberti
Abstract
In communities highly dependent on rainfed agriculture for their livelihoods, the common occur-rence of climatic shocks such as droughts can lower the opportunity cost of having children, and raise fertility. Using longitudinal household data from Madagascar, we estimate the causal effect of drought occurrences on fertility, and explore the nature of potential mechanisms driving this effect. We exploit exogenous within-district year-to-year variation in rainfall deficits, and find that droughts occurring during the agricultural season significantly increase the number of children born to women living in agrarian communities. This effect is long lasting, as it is not reversed within four years following the drought occurrence. Analyzing the mechanism, we find that droughts have no effect on common underlying factors of high fertility such as marriage timing and child mortality. Furthermore, droughts have no significant effect on fertility if they occur during the non-agricultural season or in non-agrarian communities, and their positive effect in agrarian communities is mitigated by irrigation. These findings provide evidence that a low opportunity cost of having children is the main channel driving the fertility effect of drought in agrarian communities.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvain Dessy & Francesca Marchetta & Roland Pongou & Luca Tiberti, 2019. "Fertility after The Drought: Theory and Evidence from Madagascar," Cahiers de recherche 1901, Centre de recherche sur les risques, les enjeux économiques, et les politiques publiques.
    • Handle: RePEc:lvl:crrecr:1901
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    Cited by:

    1. Landry Kuate & Roland Pongou & Nicholas Rivers, 2021. "Timing Matters: Prenatal Climate Shocks, Sex Ratio, and Human Capital," Working Papers 2102E Classification-Q54,, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climatic shocks; Droughts; Agricultural season; Opportunity cost of children; Fertility; Irrigation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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