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Determinants of local governments'­ reelection: New evidence based on a Bayesian approach

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Teresa Balaguer-Coll

    (Department of Finance and Accounting, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)

  • María Isabel Brun-Martos

    (Department of Finance and Accounting, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)

  • Anabel Forte

    (Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)

  • Emili Tortosa-Ausina

    (IVIE, Valencia and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)

Abstract
This paper analyzes the effect of public spending on the probability of municipal reelection of Spanish local governments during the 2000-2007 period, using Bayesian techniques. The results indicate that, in general, increases in local government spending positively impact on the chances of reelection of local governments. Moreover, the capital expenditure over the whole period affects positively to the reelection probability, although the pre-electoral one is preferred, and the electorate rewards increases in current expenditures only in the period before elections. The use of Bayesian techniques is particularly interesting, since results are not boiled down to a summary effect such as the average; on the contrary, it shows exactly how a given covariate affects the probability of being reelected.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Teresa Balaguer-Coll & María Isabel Brun-Martos & Anabel Forte & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2014. "Determinants of local governments'­ reelection: New evidence based on a Bayesian approach," Working Papers 2014/06, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    • Handle: RePEc:jau:wpaper:2014/06
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    File URL: http://www.doctreballeco.uji.es/wpficheros/Brun_et_al_06_2014.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian; election; local government; opportunistic policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D60 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - General
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • H74 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Borrowing
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare

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