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Are elections debt brakes? Evidence from French municipalities

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  • Cassette, Aurélie
  • Farvaque, Etienne
Abstract
We show that voters are fiscal conservatives, although in the long run only: while the average (over the mandate) level of debt has a negative impact on the probability of reelection, pre-election debt accumulation by incumbents increases their probability of reelection. As the negative impact becomes larger as the debt level becomes higher, it compensates for the short run effect. Elections thus appear as a disciplining device, even if a weak one.

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  • Cassette, Aurélie & Farvaque, Etienne, 2014. "Are elections debt brakes? Evidence from French municipalities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 314-316.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:122:y:2014:i:2:p:314-316
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2013.12.022
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    Cited by:

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    2. Silva-Escobar, Daniel, 2022. "Conducta electoral oportunista y determinantes económicos de la reelección de alcaldes/as en Chile," Documentos de Trabajo 10, Estudios Nueva Economía.
    3. Susana Peralta & João Pereira dos Santos, 2020. "Who seeks reelection: local fiscal restraints and political selection," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 184(1), pages 105-134, July.
    4. Aurélie Cassette & Etienne Farvaque, 2019. "Sticky decentralization? Evidence from the French school reform," Economics Working Paper from Condorcet Center for political Economy at CREM-CNRS 2019-03-ccr, Condorcet Center for political Economy.
    5. Cassette, Aurélie & Farvaque, Etienne, 2016. "A dirty deed done dirt cheap: Reporting the blame of a national reform on local politicians," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 127-144.
    6. Dervis Kirikkaleli & Kelvin Onyibor, 2020. "The Effects of Financial and Political Risks on Economic Risk in Southern European Countries: A Dynamic Panel Analysis," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(1), pages 381-393, January.
    7. Nouha Bougharriou, 2017. "Understanding Public Debt from a Political Economy Perspective," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 3, pages 379-389, September.
    8. Maria Teresa Balaguer-Coll & María Isabel Brun-Martos & Anabel Forte & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2014. "Determinants of local governments'­ reelection: New evidence based on a Bayesian approach," Working Papers 2014/06, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    9. Smales, Lee A., 2014. "Political uncertainty and financial market uncertainty in an Australian context," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 415-435.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt; Elections; Municipalities; Political business cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • H74 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Borrowing

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