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The Pass-Through of Exchange Rate in the Context of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine

    (ESSCA School of Management)

  • Rault, Christophe

    (University of Orléans)

Abstract
This paper investigates whether exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into import prices is a nonlinear phenomenon for five heavily indebted Euro area countries, namely the so-called GIIPS group (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain). Using logistic smooth transition models, we explore the existence of nonlinearity with respect to sovereign bond yield spreads (versus the German bund) as an indicator of confidence crisis/macroeconomic instability. Our results provide strong evidence that the extent of ERPT is higher in periods of macroeconomic distress, i.e. when sovereign bond yield spreads exceed a given threshold. For almost all the GIIPS countries, we reveal that the increase in macroeconomic instability and the loss of confidence during the recent sovereign debt crisis has entailed higher sensitivity of import prices to exchange rate movements. For instance, the rate of pass-through in Greece is equal to 0.66% when the yield differential is below 2.13%, but beyond this threshold level, the sensitivity of import prices becomes higher and reaches full ERPT. Our findings raise the serious question of whether the exchange rate could be an effective tool to boost the trade balance and prevent deflationary threats when financial crisis hits.

Suggested Citation

  • Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine & Rault, Christophe, 2015. "The Pass-Through of Exchange Rate in the Context of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis," IZA Discussion Papers 9467, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9467
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

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    2. Jašová, Martina & Moessner, Richhild & Takáts, Előd, 2020. "Domestic and global output gaps as inflation drivers: What does the Phillips curve tell?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 238-253.
    3. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Phillips Curve for the Asian Economies: A Nonlinear Perspective," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(12), pages 3508-3537, September.
    4. Lodge, David & Pérez, Javier J. & Albrizio, Silvia & Everett, Mary & De Bandt, Olivier & Georgiadis, Georgios & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Lastauskas, Povilas & Carluccio, Juan & Parrága, Susana & Carvalho,, 2021. "The implications of globalisation for the ECB monetary policy strategy," Occasional Paper Series 263, European Central Bank.
    5. Cheikh, Nidhaleddine Ben & Zaied, Younes Ben & Mattoussi, Wided, 2023. "Oil price shocks in the age of surging inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    6. Kuznetsov, Aleksei & Berdigulova, Aigul, 2019. "EDB Special report 2019. Exchange rate pass-through effects on inflation in EDB Member Countries," Working Papers 2019-7, Eurasian Development Bank, Chief Economist Group.
    7. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine & Ben Zaied, Younes & Ben Ameur, Hachmi, 2023. "Recent developments in exchange rate pass-through: What have we learned from uncertain times?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    8. Yavuz Arslan & Martina Jašová & Elod Takáts, 2016. "The inflation process," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 23-40, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Michael Debabrata Patra & Joice John, 2018. "Non-Linear, Asymmetric and TimeVarying Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Recent Evidence from India," Working Papers id:12700, eSocialSciences.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sovereign spreads; import prices; exchange rate pass-through; smooth transition models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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