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Domestic and global output gaps as inflation drivers: What does the Phillips curve tell?

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  • Jašová, Martina
  • Moessner, Richhild
  • Takáts, Előd
Abstract
We study how domestic and global output gaps affect CPI inflation. We use a New-Keynesian Phillips curve framework which controls for non-linear exchange rate movements for a panel of 26 advanced and 22 emerging economies covering the 1994Q1−2017Q4 period. We find that both global and domestic output gaps are significant drivers of inflation both in the pre-crisis (1994–2008) and post-crisis (2008–2017) periods. Furthermore, after the crisis, in advanced economies the effect of the domestic output gap declines, while in emerging economies the effect of the global output gap declines. Our results suggest that emerging and advanced economies have become more similar to each other in terms of output gaps as inflation drivers. The paper demonstrates the usefulness of the New Keynesian Phillips curve in identifying the impact of global and domestic output gaps on inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jašová, Martina & Moessner, Richhild & Takáts, Előd, 2020. "Domestic and global output gaps as inflation drivers: What does the Phillips curve tell?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 238-253.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:87:y:2020:i:c:p:238-253
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.07.025
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output gaps; Global factors; Inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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