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The Effects of the Dobbs Decision on Fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Dench, Daniel

    (Georgia Institute of Technology)

  • Pineda-Torres, Mayra

    (Georgia Institute of Technology)

  • Myers, Caitlin Knowles

    (Middlebury College)

Abstract
The U.S. Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization sparked the most profound transformation of the landscape of abortion access in 50 years. We provide the first estimates of the effects of this decision on fertility using a pre-registered synthetic difference-in-differences design applied to newly released provisional natality data for the first half of 2023. The results indicate that states with abortion bans experienced an average increase in births of 2.3 percent relative to states where abortion was not restricted.

Suggested Citation

  • Dench, Daniel & Pineda-Torres, Mayra & Myers, Caitlin Knowles, 2023. "The Effects of the Dobbs Decision on Fertility," IZA Discussion Papers 16608, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16608
    as

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    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp16608.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Levine, Phillip B & Staiger, Douglas, 2004. "Abortion Policy and Fertility Outcomes: The Eastern European Experience," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(1), pages 223-243, April.
    2. Alberto Abadie & Susan Athey & Guido W Imbens & Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2023. "When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(1), pages 1-35.
    3. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 2002. "The Power of the Pill: Oral Contraceptives and Women's Career and Marriage Decisions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 730-770, August.
    4. Sarah Miller & Laura R. Wherry & Diana Greene Foster, 2023. "The Economic Consequences of Being Denied an Abortion," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 394-437, February.
    5. Martha J. Bailey & Janet Currie & Hannes Schwandt, 2022. "The Covid-19 Baby Bump: The Unexpected Increase in U.S. Fertility Rates in Response to the Pandemic," Working Papers 2022-30, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    6. Joanna Venator & Jason Fletcher, 2021. "Undue Burden Beyond Texas: An Analysis of Abortion Clinic Closures, Births, and Abortions in Wisconsin," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 774-813, June.
    7. Ted Joyce & Robert Kaestner, 2001. "The Impact of Mandatory Waiting Periods and Parental Consent Laws on the Timing of Abortion and State of Occurrence among Adolescents in Mississippi and South Carolina," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 263-282.
    8. Jason M. Lindo & Caitlin Knowles Myers & Andrea Schlosser & Scott Cunningham, 2020. "How Far Is Too Far? New Evidence on Abortion Clinic Closures, Access, and Abortions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 55(4), pages 1137-1160.
    9. Fischer, Stefanie & Royer, Heather & White, Corey, 2018. "The impacts of reduced access to abortion and family planning services on abortions, births, and contraceptive purchases," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 43-68.
    10. Jason M. Lindo & Analisa Packham, 2017. "How Much Can Expanding Access to Long-Acting Reversible Contraceptives Reduce Teen Birth Rates?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 348-376, August.
    11. Kelly, Andrea & Lindo, Jason M. & Packham, Analisa, 2020. "The power of the IUD: Effects of expanding access to contraception through Title X clinics," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    12. Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto, 2021. "Synthetic controls with imperfect pretreatment fit," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(4), pages 1197-1221, November.
    13. Sonia Oreffice, 2007. "Did the legalization of abortion increase women’s household bargaining power? Evidence from labor supply," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 181-207, June.
    14. Caterina Muratori, 2021. "The Impact of Abortion Access on Violence Against Women," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2021-03, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    15. Caitlin Knowles Myers, 2022. "Confidential and legal access to abortion and contraception in the USA, 1960–2020," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1385-1441, October.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    abortion; Dobbs; fertility; power analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • K23 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - Regulated Industries and Administrative Law

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