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Jobs, Crime, and Votes: A Short-run Evaluation of the Refugee Crisis in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Gehrsitz, Markus

    (University of Strathclyde)

  • Ungerer, Martin

    (ZEW Mannheim)

Abstract
Millions of refugees made their way to Europe between 2014 and 2015, with over one million arriving in Germany alone. Yet, little is known about the impact of this inflow on labor markets, crime, and voting behavior. This article uses administrative data on refugee allocation and provides an evaluation of the short-run consequences of the refugee inflow. Our identification strategy exploits that a scramble for accommodation determined the assignment of refugees to German counties resulting in exogeneous variations in the number of refugees per county within and across states. Our estimates suggest that migrants have not displaced native workers but have themselves struggled to find gainful employment. We find very small increases in crime in particular with respect to drug offenses and fare-dodging. Our analysis further suggests that counties which experience a larger influx see neither more nor less support for the main anti-immigrant party than counties which experience small migrant inflows.

Suggested Citation

  • Gehrsitz, Markus & Ungerer, Martin, 2017. "Jobs, Crime, and Votes: A Short-run Evaluation of the Refugee Crisis in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 10494, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10494
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    voting; unemployment; refugees; immigration; crime;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • K4 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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