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Dynamic scoring of tax reforms in the European Union

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Abstract
In this paper, we present a dynamic scoring analysis of tax reforms for European countries. In this analysis we account for the feedback effects resulting from the adjustment in the labour market and for the economy-wide reaction to tax policy changes. We combine the microsimulation model EUROMOD, extended to incorporate an estimated labour supply model, with the new Keynesian DSGE model QUEST, used by the European Commission for analysing fiscal and structural reform in EU member states. These two models are connected in two ways: by introducing tax policy shocks in QUEST, derived from computing changes in implicit tax rates using EUROMOD; and by calibrating the elasticity of labour supply and the non-participation rates, by skill categories, in QUEST from values calculated using EUROMOD and the estimated labour supply function. Moreover, we discuss aggregation issues and the consistency between the micro and macro modelling of labour supply and interpret the model interaction in terms of tax incidence analysis. We illustrate the methodological approach with the results obtained when scoring specific reforms in three EU Member States, namely, Italy, Belgium and Poland. We compare two different scenarios one in which the behavioural response to tax changes over the medium term is ignored and another scenario where this behavioural dimension is embedded into the microsimulation model. Our results suggest that accounting for the behavioural reaction and macroeconomic feedback to tax policy changes enriches the tax reforms' analysis, by increasing the accuracy of the direct fiscal and distributional impact assessment provided by the microsimulation model for the three reforms considered. Our results are also in line with the evidence on dynamic scoring exercises, showing that most tax reforms entail relatively small feedback effects (see Gravelle, 2015, for a recent review focusing on the US dynamic scoring experience). In our particular setting, the relatively small behaviour effects are directly linked to the nature of the tax reforms implemented, where a decrease of the employees tax burden generates opposite wage and employment effects in the labour market.

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  • Salvador Barrios & Mathias Dolls & Anamaria Maftei & Andreas Peichl & Sara Riscado & Janos Varga & Christian Wittneben, 2016. "Dynamic scoring of tax reforms in the European Union," JRC Working Papers on Taxation & Structural Reforms 2016-03, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:taxref:201603
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    3. Ana Agúndez García & Michael Christl, 2023. "Hypothetical Tax-Benefit Reforms in Hungary: Shifting from Tax Relief to Cash Transfers for Family Support," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 61(6), pages 723-746, November.
    4. Michal Horvath & Matus Senaj & Zuzana Siebertova & Norbert Svarda & Jana Valachyova, 2018. "Evaluating the Aggregate Effects of Tax and Benefit Reforms," Working Papers Working Paper No. 1/2018, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    5. Alexandri, Eva & Figari, Francesco & Longo, Enrico & Suta, Cornelia-Madalina, 2024. "A micro-macro approach for the evaluation of fiscal policies: The case of the Italian tax-benefit reform," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    6. Salvador Barrios & Viginta Ivaškaitė-Tamošiūnė & Anamaria Maftei & Edlira Narazani & Janos Varga, 2020. "Progressive Tax Reforms in Flat Tax Countries," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(2), pages 83-107, March.
    7. Konstantins Benkovskis & Ludmila Fadejeva & Anna Pluta & Anna Zasova, 2023. "Keeping the best of two worlds: Linking CGE and microsimulation models for policy analysis," Working Papers 2023/01, Latvijas Banka.
    8. Caterina Astarita & Salvador Barrios & Francesca D'Auria & Anamaria Maftei & Philipp Mohl & Matteo Salto & Marie-Luise Schmitz & Alberto Tumino & Edouard Turkisch, 2018. "Impact of fiscal policy on income distribution," Report on Public Finances in EMU, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission, pages 71-131, January.
    9. Michael Christl & Silvia De Poli & Janos Varga, 2022. "Reducing the income tax burden for households with children: an assessment of the child tax credit reform in Austria," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 151-177, June.
    10. Ali Bayar & Barbara Bratta & Silvia Carta & Paolo Di Caro & Marco Manzo & Carlo Orecchia, 2021. "Assessing the effects of VAT policies with an integrated CGE-microsimulation approach: evidence on Italy," Working Papers wp2021-14, Ministry of Economy and Finance, Department of Finance.
    11. Isabelle Justo & Julien Hartley & Fidel Picos & Sara Riscado, 2019. "Mortgage Tax Reforms in Sweden: Scope for a Double Dividend?," European Economy - Economic Briefs 049, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    12. Diego d'Andria & Jason DeBacker & Richard Evans & Jonathan Pycroft & Magdalena Zachlod-Jelec, 2019. "Micro-founded tax policy effects in a heterogenenous-agent macro-model," JRC Working Papers on Taxation & Structural Reforms 2019-01, Joint Research Centre.
    13. Okan Erol, Kazim, 2022. "TURKMOD: developing a tax and benefit microsimulation model for Turkey," Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis Working Paper Series CEMPA1/22, Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    14. Alari Paulus & Caroline Klein, 2019. "Effects of tax-benefit policies on the income distribution and work incentives in Estonia," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1570, OECD Publishing.
    15. Wojciech Balcerowicz & Anamaria Maftei & Janos Varga, 2019. "Labour Taxation in Romania: Revised, but not changed," European Economy - Economic Briefs 050, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    16. Norbert Švarda & Jana Valachyová & Matúš Senaj & Michal Horváth & Zuzana Siebertová, 2018. "The end of the flat tax experiment in Slovakia: An evaluation using behavioural microsimulation linked with a dynamic macroeconomic framework," Discussion Papers 50, Central European Labour Studies Institute (CELSI).
    17. Holly Sutherland, 2018. "Quality Assessment of Microsimulation Models The Case of EUROMOD," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(1), pages 198-223.
    18. Andreas Peichl, 2016. "Linking Microsimulation and CGE models," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 9(1), pages 167-174.
    19. Mathias Dolls & Clemens Fuest & Carla Krolage & Florian Neumeier & Daniel Stöhlker, 2019. "Incentivising structural reforms in Europe?," EconPol Policy Brief 14, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    20. D'ANDRIA Diego & DEBACKER Jason & EVANS Richard W. & PYCROFT Jonathan & ZACHLOD-JELEC Magdalena, 2021. "Taxing income or consumption: macroeconomic and distributional effects for Italy," JRC Working Papers on Taxation & Structural Reforms 2021-13, Joint Research Centre.
    21. Benczúr, Péter & Kátay, Gábor & Kiss, Áron, 2018. "Assessing the economic and social impact of tax and benefit reforms: A general-equilibrium microsimulation approach applied to Hungary," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 441-457.
    22. Salvador Barrios, 2020. "Taxation and growth: Why does it matter and how can it be analysed?," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 42(4), pages 366-384, December.
    23. Vandyck, Toon & Weitzel, Matthias & Wojtowicz, Krzysztof & Rey Los Santos, Luis & Maftei, Anamaria & Riscado, Sara, 2021. "Climate policy design, competitiveness and income distribution: A macro-micro assessment for 11 EU countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    24. Roeger, Werner & Varga, Janos & Veld, Jan in 't & Vogel, Lukas, 2021. "The distributional impact of labour market reforms: A model-based assessment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).

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    Keywords

    Dynamic scoring; tax reforms; first and second round effects; labour market behaviour;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General

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