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Does the Greenspan Era Provide Evidence on Leadership in the FOMC?

Author

Listed:
  • Makram El-Shagi

    (Halle Institute for Economic Research)

  • Alexander Jung

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract
This paper provides new empirical evidence on the presence of chairman dominance in the FOMC. It uses a novel data set with information on individual forecasts of FOMC members in the 1990s. The approach of this paper is to estimate individual Taylor-type reaction functions for FOMC participants based on their interest rate preferences and economic information in real-time. A bootstrap analysis, which exploits information contained in these reaction functions, constructs counterfactual distributions of disagreement among FOMC members. By comparing these distributions with the observed dissenting behaviour, we find empirical evidence in favour of an “invisible hand”, which influenced policy-makers’ preferences towards the consensus view during the committee deliberations. While several explanations for this behaviour are conceivable (e.g. informal rules, consensus tradition, joint paradigms, bias statement), during the Greenspan era the presence of a dominant chairman is the most plausible explanation for it.

Suggested Citation

  • Makram El-Shagi & Alexander Jung, 2012. "Does the Greenspan Era Provide Evidence on Leadership in the FOMC?," Working Papers 2012.6, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    • Handle: RePEc:inf:wpaper:2012.6
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    Cited by:

    1. Jung, Alexander & Latsos, Sophia, 2015. "Do federal reserve bank presidents have a regional bias?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 173-183.
    2. Baranowski, Pawel & Bennani, Hamza & Doryń, Wirginia, 2021. "Do the ECB's introductory statements help predict monetary policy? Evidence from a tone analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Riboni, Alessandro & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco, 2014. "Dissent in monetary policy decisions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 137-154.
    4. Hamza Bennani & Davide Romelli, 2024. "Exploring the informativeness and drivers of tone during committee meetings: the case of the Federal Reserve," Post-Print hal-04670309, HAL.
    5. El-Shagi, Makram & Jung, Alexander, 2015. "Does the Greenspan era provide evidence on leadership in the FOMC?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 173-190.
    6. A. Jung, 2013. "Policymakers’ Interest Rate Preferences: Recent Evidence for Three Monetary Policy Committees," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 150-197, September.
    7. Eichler, Stefan & Lähner, Tom & Noth, Felix, 2016. "Regional Banking Instability and FOMC Voting," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145803, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Hamza Bennani, 2016. "Measuring Monetary Policy Stress for Fed District Representatives," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(2), pages 156-176, May.
    9. Farvaque, Etienne & Malan, Franck & Stanek, Piotr, 2020. "Misplaced childhood: When recession children grow up as central bankers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    10. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Have minutes helped to predict fed funds rate changes?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 18-32.
    11. Mikael Apel & Marianna Blix Grimaldi & Isaiah Hull, 2022. "How Much Information Do Monetary Policy Committees Disclose? Evidence from the FOMC's Minutes and Transcripts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(5), pages 1459-1490, August.
    12. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Have FOMC minutes helped markets to predict FED funds rate changes?," Working Paper Series 1961, European Central Bank.
    13. Bennani, Hamza & Farvaque, Etienne & Stanek, Piotr, 2018. "Influence of regional cycles and personal background on FOMC members’ preferences and disagreement," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 416-424.
    14. Smales, Lee A. & Apergis, Nick, 2016. "The influence of FOMC member characteristics on the monetary policy decision-making process," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 216-231.
    15. Smales, L.A. & Apergis, N., 2017. "Understanding the impact of monetary policy announcements: The importance of language and surprises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 33-50.
    16. Sylvester Eijffinger & Ronald Mahieu & Louis Raes, 2016. "Monetary Policy Committees, Voting Behavior and Ideal Points," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1628, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    17. Hüpper, Florian & Kempa, Bernd, 2023. "Inflation targeting and inflation communication of the Federal Reserve: Words and deeds," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FOMC; leadership; collective decision-making; real-time data; individual reaction functions; bootstrap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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