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Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Why Knowing Your Lender Matters More Than Fundamentals

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  • Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti
  • Mr. Stijn Claessens
  • Mr. Damien Puy
Abstract
This paper analyzes the behavior of gross capital inflows across 34 emerging markets (EMs). We first confirm that aggregate inflows to EMs co-move considerably. We then report three findings: (i) the aggregate co-movement conceals significant heterogeneity across asset types as only bank-related and portfolio bond and equity inflows do co-move; (ii) while global push factors in advanced economies mostly explain the common dynamics, their relative importance varies by type of flow; and (iii) the sensitivity to common dynamics varies significantly across borrower countries, with market structure characteristics (especially the composition of the foreign investor base and the level of liquidity) rather than borrower country’s institutional fundamentals strongly affecting sensitivities. Countries relying more on international funds and global banks are found to be more sensitive to push factors. Our findings suggest that EMs need to closely monitor their lenders and investors to assess their inflow exposures to global push factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti & Mr. Stijn Claessens & Mr. Damien Puy, 2015. "Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Why Knowing Your Lender Matters More Than Fundamentals," IMF Working Papers 2015/127, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/127
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; equity; equity flow; portfolio equity; Push factors; capital flows; emerging markets; mutual funds; global banks; bond flow; MSCI emerging market index; market characteristic; investor base; inflows to EMs; equity inflow; Bonds; Stocks; Stock markets; Capital inflows; Global; Europe; Africa; Asia and Pacific;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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