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Cash and Conflict – Large-Scale Experimental Evidence from Niger

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick Premand

    (Development Impact Evaluation (DIME) Department, World Bank)

  • Dominic Rohner

    (University of Lausanne and CEPR)

Abstract
Conflict undermines development, while poverty, in turn, breeds conflict. Policy interventions such as cash transfers could lower engagement in conflict by raising poor households’ welfare and productivity. However, cash transfers may also trigger appropriation or looting of cash or assets. The expansion of government programs may further attract attacks to undermine state legitimacy. To investigate the net effect across these forces, this paper studies the impact of cash transfers on conflict in Niger. The analysis relies on the large-scale randomization of a government-led cash transfer program among nearly 4,000 villages over seven years, combined with geo-referenced conflict events that draw on media and nongovernmental organization reports from a wide variety of international and domestic sources. The findings show that cash transfers did not result in greater pacification but—if anything—triggered a short-term increase in conflict events, which were to a large extent driven by terrorist attacks by foreign rebel groups (such as Boko Haram) that could have incentives to “sabotage” successful government programs.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Premand & Dominic Rohner, 2023. "Cash and Conflict – Large-Scale Experimental Evidence from Niger," HiCN Working Papers 382, Households in Conflict Network.
    • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:382
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    File URL: https://hicn.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/HiCN-WP-382.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Hirvonen, Kalle & Machado, Elia Axinia & Simons, Andrew M., 2024. "Do social protection programs reduce conflict risk? Evidence from a large-scale safety net program in rural Ethiopia," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343590, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conflict; Terrorism; Cash Transfers; Sahel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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