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Cash and Conflict: Large-Scale Experimental Evidence from Niger

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  • Premand,Patrick
  • Rohner,Dominic Patrick
Abstract
Conflict undermines development, while poverty, in turn, breeds conflict. Policyinterventions such as cash transfers could lower engagement in conflict by raising poor households' welfare andproductivity. However, cash transfers may also trigger appropriation or looting of cash or assets. The expansion ofgovernment programs may further attract attacks to undermine state legitimacy. To investigate the net effect across theseforces, this paper studies the impact of cash transfers on conflict in Niger. The analysis relies on the large-scalerandomization of a government-led cash transfer program among nearly 4,000 villages over seven years, combined withgeo-referenced conflict events that draw on media and nongovernmental organization reports from a wide variety ofinternational and domestic sources. The findings show that cash transfers did not result in greater pacification but—ifanything—triggered a short-term increase in conflict events, which were to a large extent driven by terrorist attacks byforeign rebel groups (such as Boko Haram) that could have incentives to “sabotage” successful government programs.

Suggested Citation

  • Premand,Patrick & Rohner,Dominic Patrick, 2023. "Cash and Conflict: Large-Scale Experimental Evidence from Niger," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10293, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10293
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    Cited by:

    1. Hirvonen, Kalle & Machado, Elia Axinia & Simons, Andrew M., 2024. "Do social protection programs reduce conflict risk? Evidence from a large-scale safety net program in rural Ethiopia," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343590, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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