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The labor supply of baby-boomers and low-flation

Author

Listed:
  • Benoit Mojon

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Xavier Ragot

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract
Why is wage inflation so weak in spite of the recent sharp reduction in unemployment? We show that this may be due to an ongoing major positive labor supply shock. Indeed, the participation rate of workers aged between 55 and 64 has increased steadily over the last decade, from a third to above a half on average across OECD countries. This is most likely the consequence of aging and the reform of pensions. We show that the participation rate of workers aged 55 to 64 contributes to explain why wage inflation has remained weak over the last five years. For instance, it accounts for as much as -1% of wage inflation per annum in Germany since 2013. Our second result is that Phillips curves are alive and well. Wage inflation remains highly responsive to domestic unemployment rates, including after the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Benoit Mojon & Xavier Ragot, 2018. "The labor supply of baby-boomers and low-flation," Working Papers hal-03444399, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03444399
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03444399
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Blanchard, 2018. "Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 97-120, Winter.
    2. Raphael A. Auer & Claudio Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2017. "The Globalisation of Inflation: The Growing Importance of Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 6387, CESifo.
    3. Johannes F. Schmieder† & Till von Wachter & Stefan Bender, 2011. "The Effects Of Extended Unemployment Insurance Over The Business Cycle: Evidence From Regression Discontinuity Estimates Over Twenty Years," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-063, Boston University - Department of Economics.
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    5. Nickel, Christiane & Bobeica, Elena & Lis, Eliza & Sun, Yiqiao, 2017. "Demographics and inflation," Working Paper Series 2006, European Central Bank.
    6. Johannes F. Schmieder & Till von Wachter & Stefan Bender, 2012. "The Effects of Extended Unemployment Insurance Over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Regression Discontinuity Estimates Over 20 Years," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 701-752.
    7. Blanchard, Oliver & Cerutti, Eugenio & SUmmers, Lawrence, 2015. "Inflation and Activity - Two Explorations and Their Monetary Policy Implications," Working Paper Series 15-070, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/8m9642tnm9kuaqr07m32s02jq is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Pierre Jaillet & Benoît Mojon, 2018. "Les politiques d’objectifs des banques centrales en perspective," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 21-61.
    3. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5vh68vsbm9akb9r0rkcdi4tmi is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/8m9642tnm9kuaqr07m32s02jq is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Xavier Ragot, 2019. "The Euro at 20: a critical assessment," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403622, HAL.
    6. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Xavier Ragot, 2019. "The Euro at 20: a critical assessment," Post-Print hal-03403622, HAL.
    7. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2018. "Why does the revovery show so little inflation," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03471719, HAL.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5vh68vsbm9akb9r0rkcdi4tmi is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Xavier Ragot, 2019. "The Euro at 20: a critical assessment," Post-Print hal-03403622, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Wages; Compensation; Labor costs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

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