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The Chinese saving puzzle and the life-cycle hypothesis: A revaluation

Author

Listed:
  • Chi-Chur Chao

    (CUHK - The Chinese University of Hong Kong [Hong Kong])

  • Jean-Pierre Laffargue

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Eden S. H. Yu
Abstract
In a stimulating paper, Modigliani and Cao (2004) concluded that most of the huge increase in the household saving rate in China since 1975, the 'Chinese saving puzzle', can be explained by the life-cycle hypothesis. Their analysis is based on the estimation of reduced form equations. However, a structural model of their hypothesis would impose constraints on these equations. For not taking them into account, their test of the life-cycle hypothesis lacks power. In this paper, we develop a structural model of household saving behavior based on the lifecycle hypothesis for the Chinese economy. We find that the life-cycle hypothesis can explain only 35% of the surge of the Chinese household saving. We then add to the model the strong motivation of young adults for buying a home and the financial support they receive from their parent for that. In this way, the model can reproduce the high and increasing level of saving since the mid-nineties. Nonetheless the increase in household saving, which took place during the eighties, may not be explained by the life-cycle hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Chi-Chur Chao & Jean-Pierre Laffargue & Eden S. H. Yu, 2011. "The Chinese saving puzzle and the life-cycle hypothesis: A revaluation," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00645288, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-00645288
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2010.09.004
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Du, Xuyang & Mohd, Saidatulakmal, 2024. "Urban–Rural heterogeneity in the effect of population ageing on the savings rate of urban and rural households in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 999-1010.
    2. Steven Lugauer & Jinlan Ni & Zhichao Yin, 2014. "Micro-Data Evidence on Family Size and Chinese Saving Rates," Working Papers 023, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2014.
    3. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2021. "Is the selfish life-cycle model more applicable in Japan and, if so, why? A literature survey," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 157-187, March.
    4. Le Wen & Krishna P. Paudel & Qinying He, 2022. "Temporary Migration and Savings Rates: Evidence from China," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(6), pages 2810-2849, December.
    5. Curtis, Chadwick C. & Lugauer, Steven & Mark, Nelson C., 2017. "Demographics and aggregate household saving in Japan, China, and India," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 175-191.
    6. Charles Yuji Horioka & Luigi Ventura, 2024. "Why Do Europeans Save? Micro-Evidence from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey," Discussion Paper Series DP2024-26, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    7. Bollinger, Christopher & Ding, Xiaozhou & Lugauer, Steven, 2022. "The expansion of higher education and household saving in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    8. Manger, Mark S. & Matthews, J. Scott, 2021. "Knowing when to splurge: Precautionary saving and Chinese-Canadians," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    9. Liu, Lu & Wang, Qiuyun & Zhang, Anquan, 2019. "The impact of housing price on non-housing consumption of the Chinese households: A general equilibrium analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 152-164.
    10. Miaoxi Zhao & Xingjian Liu & Ben Derudder & Ye Zhong & Wei Shen, 2015. "Mapping producer services networks in mainland Chinese cities," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(16), pages 3018-3034, December.
    11. van Treeck, Till. & Sturn, Simon., 2012. "Income inequality as a cause of the Great Recession? : A survey of current debates," ILO Working Papers 994709343402676, International Labour Organization.
    12. Gu, Xinhua & Tam, Pui Sun & Li, Guoqiang & Zhao, Qingbin, 2020. "An alternative explanation for high saving in China: Rising inequality," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1082-1094.
    13. Chang, Xiao & An, Tongliang & Tam, Pui Sun & Gu, Xinhua, 2020. "National savings rate and sectoral income distribution: An empirical look at China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    14. Yu, Jihai & Zhu, Guozhong, 2013. "How uncertain is household income in China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 74-78.
    15. Xiaoqing Ai & Hongda Zhang & Keyu Guo & Fubin Shi, 2022. "Does Regional Innovation Environment Have an Impact on the Gathering of Technological Talent? An Empirical Study Based on 31 Provinces in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-17, November.
    16. Gu, Xinhua & Tam, Pui Sun, 2013. "The saving–growth–inequality triangle in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 850-857.
    17. Yating Dai & Jian Cheng & Daolin Zhu, 2022. "Understanding the Impact of Land Supply Structure on Low Consumption: Empirical Evidence from China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, April.
    18. Xiaoyu Deng & Jing Tian & Rong Chen, 2019. "Effect of Social Security System on Consumption through Income and Uncertainty: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-16, March.
    19. Yu, Yan-Yan & Liang, Qiao-mei & Liu, Li-Jing, 2023. "Impact of population ageing on carbon emissions: A case of China's urban households," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 86-100.
    20. Liu, Lu, 2023. "Mortgage loan and housing market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 736-749.

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