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Duration Models For Credit Rating Migration: Evidence From The Financial Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Myriam Ben Ayed
  • Adel Karaa

    (ISG Tunis - ISG Tunis)

  • Jean-Luc Prigent

    (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université)

Abstract
We introduce a specific duration model to analyze the prediction of the credit rating migration. We consider hazard rate processes based on multi‐state autoregressive conditional duration models. To take account of the economic context, we model the conditional mean of the duration between two ratings by means of a latent process. To this purpose, a dynamic‐ordered probit model is developed to describe the directions taken by the ratings in the presence of multiple states. As an illustration, we study the migration of credit rating during periods before and after the financial crisis. (JEL C14, C41, G24)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Myriam Ben Ayed & Adel Karaa & Jean-Luc Prigent, 2018. "Duration Models For Credit Rating Migration: Evidence From The Financial Crisis," Post-Print hal-03679407, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03679407
    DOI: 10.1111/ecin.12561
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frydman, Halina & Schuermann, Til, 2008. "Credit rating dynamics and Markov mixture models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1062-1075, June.
    2. Feng, D. & Gourieroux, C. & Jasiak, J., 2008. "The ordered qualitative model for credit rating transitions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 111-130, January.
    3. André Lucas & Siem Jan Koopman, 2005. "Business and default cycles for credit risk," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 311-323.
    4. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
    5. Joseph P. Byrne & Marina-Eliza Spaliara & Serafeim Tsoukas, 2016. "Firm Survival, Uncertainty, And Financial Frictions: Is There A Financial Uncertainty Accelerator?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 375-390, January.
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    7. repec:bla:jecsur:v:22:y:2008:i:4:p:711-751 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Robert F. Engle, 2000. "The Econometrics of Ultra-High Frequency Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(1), pages 1-22, January.
    9. Altman, Edward I., 1998. "The importance and subtlety of credit rating migration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(10-11), pages 1231-1247, October.
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    11. Joachim Grammig & Kai-Oliver Maurer, 2000. "Non-monotonic hazard functions and the autoregressive conditional duration model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(1), pages 16-38.
    12. Patrick Gagliardini, 2005. "Stochastic Migration Models with Application to Corporate Risk," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 188-226.
    13. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
    14. Greene, William H., 1990. "A Gamma-distributed stochastic frontier model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1-2), pages 141-163.
    15. Kim, Yoonseong & Sohn, So Young, 2008. "Random effects model for credit rating transitions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 184(2), pages 561-573, January.
    16. Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
    17. Gagliardini, P. & Gourieroux, C., 2005. "Migration correlation: Definition and efficient estimation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 865-894, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Brent, Daniel A. & Ren, Yongwang & Wrenn, Douglas H., 2024. "Flood Risk and Property Market," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343651, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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