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Credit Default and Business Cycles: an empirical investigation of Brazilian retail loans

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  • Arnildo da Silva Correa
  • Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins
  • Myrian Beatriz Eiras das Neves
  • Antonio Carlos Magalhães da Silva
Abstract
We use microdata from the Credit Information System (SCR) of the Central Bank of Brazil to study the relationship between credit default and business cycles. In particular, we study the first part of the argument underlying the discussion about procyclicality related to the Basel II Accord: that recessions might increase credit defaults and have adverse impacts on the losses in portfolios of lender institutions. We explore both time series and cross-sectional variation in the data. Our data on the individual level are composed of retail loan transactions in two modalities—Consumer Credit and Vehicle Financing—from 2003 to 2008. Our results support the idea of a negative relationship between business cycles and credit default, but less strong than suggested in previous studies that use corporate data. We also find low and dispersed default correlations, and smaller losses in Value at Risk (VaR) experiments than those found in the literature. These results may be possibly explained by the fact that, in the retail sector, loans are given to a large number of individuals, which may help to diversify risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnildo da Silva Correa & Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins & Myrian Beatriz Eiras das Neves & Antonio Carlos Magalhães da Silva, 2011. "Credit Default and Business Cycles: an empirical investigation of Brazilian retail loans," Working Papers Series 260, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:260
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    1. Rafael Repullo & Jesús Saurina & Carlos Trucharte, 2010. "Mitigating the pro-cyclicality of Basel II [Bank loan loss provisions: a re-examination of capital management, earnings management and signalling effects]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(64), pages 659-702.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bruno Martins, 2012. "Local Market Structure and Bank Competition: evidence from the Brazilian auto loan market," Working Papers Series 299, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    2. Luis E. Arango & Lina Cardona-Sosa, 2015. "Consumer credit performance over the business cycle in Colombia: some empirical facts," Borradores de Economia 861, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Lee, Yongwoong & Poon, Ser-Huang, 2014. "Forecasting and decomposition of portfolio credit risk using macroeconomic and frailty factors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 69-92.
    4. Alexandre, Michel & Antônio Silva Brito, Giovani & Cotrim Martins, Theo, 2017. "Default contagion among credit modalities: evidence from Brazilian data," MPRA Paper 76859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Luis E. Arango & Lina Cardona-Sosa, 2015. "Determinants of consumer credit within a debt constrained framework. Evidence from microdata," Borradores de Economia 13965, Banco de la Republica.
    6. Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo, 2012. "A Note on Particle Filters Applied to DSGE Models," Working Papers Series 281, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Ornelas, José Renato Haas & Barbachan, José Santiago Fajardo & Farias, Aquiles Rocha de, 2012. "Estimating relative risk aversion, risk-neutral and real-world densities using brazilian real currency options," EBAPE Working Papers 1, FGV EBAPE - Escola Brasileira de Administração Pública e de Empresas (Brazil).
    8. Waldyr Areosa & Marta Areosa, 2012. "Information (in) Chains: information transmission through production chains," Working Papers Series 286, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins & Myrian Beatriz Eiras das Neves, 2013. "Inadimplência de Crédito e Ciclo Econômico: um exame da relação no mercado brasileiro de crédito corporativo," Working Papers Series 304, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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