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A Bayesian non-parametric model for small population mortality

Author

Listed:
  • Hong Li

    (NKU - Nankai University)

  • Yang Lu

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract
This paper proposes a Bayesian non-parametric mortality model for a small population, when a benchmark mortality table is also available and serves as part of the prior information. In particular, we extend the Poisson-gamma model of Hardy and Panjer to incorporate correlated and age-specific mortality coefficients. These coefficients, which measure the difference in mortality levels between the small and the benchmark population, follow an age-indexed autoregressive gamma process, and can be stochastically extrapolated to ages where the small population has no historical exposure. Our model substantially improves the computation efficiency of existing two-population Bayesian mortality models by allowing for closed form posterior mean and variance of the future number of deaths, and an efficient sampling algorithm for the entire posterior distribution. We illustrate the proposed model with a life insurance portfolio from a French insurance company.

Suggested Citation

  • Hong Li & Yang Lu, 2018. "A Bayesian non-parametric model for small population mortality," Post-Print hal-02419000, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02419000
    DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2017.1418420
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02419000
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Hong Li & Yang Lu & Pintao Lyu, 2021. "Coherent Mortality Forecasting for Less Developed Countries," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-21, August.
    2. Hong Li & Yanlin Shi, 2021. "Mortality Forecasting with an Age-Coherent Sparse VAR Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-19, February.
    3. Li, Hong & Shi, Yanlin, 2021. "Forecasting mortality with international linkages: A global vector-autoregression approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 59-75.
    4. Apostolos Bozikas & Georgios Pitselis, 2019. "Credible Regression Approaches to Forecast Mortality for Populations with Limited Data," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, February.

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    Keywords

    credibility; Autoregressive gamma; two-population mortality model; parameter uncertainty;
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