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Band or Point Inflation Targeting? An Experimental Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Camille Cornand

    (Université de Lyon, Lyon, F-69007, France ; CNRS, GATE Lyon St Etienne,F-69130 Ecully, France)

  • Cheick Kader M'baye

    (University of Bamako, Bamako, Mali)

Abstract
We conduct laboratory experiments with human subjects to test the rationale of adopting a band versus point inflation targeting regime. Within the standard New Keynesian model, we evaluate the macroeconomic performances of both regimes according to the strength of shocks affecting the economy. We find that when the economy faces small shocks, the average level of inflation as well as its volatility are significantly lower in a band targeting regime, while the output gap and interest rate levels and volatility are significantly lower in a point targeting regime with tolerance bands. However, when the economy faces large shocks, choosing the suitable inflation targeting regime is irrelevant because both regimes lead to comparable performances. These findings stand in contrast to those of the literature and question the relevance of clarifying a mid-point target within the bands, especially in emerging market economies more inclined to large and frequent shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Camille Cornand & Cheick Kader M'baye, 2016. "Band or Point Inflation Targeting? An Experimental Approach," Working Papers 1616, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    • Handle: RePEc:gat:wpaper:1616
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Band or Point Inflation Targeting? An Experimental Approach
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2016-10-24 21:08:23

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ehrmann, Michael, 2021. "Point targets, tolerance bands or target ranges? Inflation target types and the anchoring of inflation expectations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    3. Bao, Te & Hommes, Cars & Pei, Jiaoying, 2021. "Expectation formation in finance and macroeconomics: A review of new experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    4. Cornand, Camille & Hubert, Paul, 2020. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: A comparison with five categories of field expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    5. Douglas Silveira & Ricardo B. L. M. Oscar, 2024. "Inflation Targeting Regimes in Emerging Market Economies: To Invest or Not to Invest?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(4), pages 2097-2129, October.
    6. Bao, Te & Zong, Jichuan, 2019. "The impact of interest rate policy on individual expectations and asset bubbles in experimental markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    7. Rholes, Ryan & Petersen, Luba, 2021. "Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 320-341.
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    9. Cornand, Camille & Hubert, Paul, 2022. "Information frictions across various types of inflation expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    10. Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2018. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: A comparison with five categories of field expectations," Working Papers halshs-01890770, HAL.
    11. Petersen, Luba & Rholes, Ryan, 2022. "Macroeconomic expectations, central bank communication, and background uncertainty: A COVID-19 laboratory experiment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    band inflation target; point inflation target; inflation expectations; monetary policy; New Keynesian model; macroeconomic shocks; laboratory experiments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior

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