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On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts : a comparison with five categories of field expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Camille Cornand

    (Université de Lyon, CNRS, Gate)

  • Paul Hubert

    (OFCE, Sciences Po, Paris, France)

Abstract
Establishing the external validity of laboratory experiments in terms of inflation forecasts is crucial for policy initiatives to be valid outside the laboratory. Our contribution is to document whether different measures of inflation expectations based on various categories of agents (participants to experiments, households, industry forecasters, professional forecasters, financial market participants and central bankers) share common patterns by analyzing: the forecasting performances of these different categories of data; the information rigidities to which they are subject; the determination of expectations. Overall, the different categories of forecasts exhibit common features: forecast errors are comparably large and autocorrelated, forecast errors and forecast revisions are predictable from past information, which suggests the presence of information frictions. Finally, the standard lagged inflation determinant of inflation expectations is robust to the data sets. There is nevertheless some heterogeneity among the six different sets. If experimental forecasts are relatively comparable to survey and financial market data, central bank forecasts seem to be superior.

Suggested Citation

  • Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2019. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts : a comparison with five categories of field expectations," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2019-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    • Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:1903
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    6. Fatemeh Mokhtarzadeh & Luba Petersen, 2021. "Coordinating expectations through central bank projections," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(3), pages 883-918, September.
    7. Madeira, Carlos, 2020. "Learning your own ability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    8. Bertasiute, Akvile & Massaro, Domenico & Weber, Matthias, 2020. "The behavioral economics of currency unions: Economic integration and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    9. Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2021. "Information frictions in inflation expectations among five types of economic agents," Working Papers halshs-03351632, HAL.
    10. Ryan Rholes & Luba Petersen, 2020. "Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?," Discussion Papers dp20-01, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    11. Aleksandra Rutkowska & Magdalena Szyszko, 2022. "New DTW Windows Type for Forward- and Backward-Lookingness Examination. Application for Inflation Expectation," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 701-718, February.
    12. John Duffy, 2022. "Why macroeconomics needs experimental evidence," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 73(1), pages 5-29, January.
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    17. Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2021. "Information frictions in inflation expectations among five types of economic agents," Working Papers hal-03468918, HAL.
    18. Rholes, Ryan & Petersen, Luba, 2021. "Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 320-341.
    19. Cornand, Camille & Hubert, Paul, 2022. "Information frictions across various types of inflation expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    20. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2020. "Self-fulfillment degree of economic expectations within an integrated space: The European Union case study," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-32, December.
    21. Petersen, Luba & Rholes, Ryan, 2022. "Macroeconomic expectations, central bank communication, and background uncertainty: A COVID-19 laboratory experiment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation expectations; experimental forecasts; survey forecasts; market based forecasts; central bank forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E7 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics

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