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Anatomy of Lifetime Earnings Inequality: Heterogeneity in Job Ladder Risk vs. Human Capital

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Abstract
We study the determinants of lifetime earnings (LE) inequality in the United States, for which differences in lifetime earnings growth are key. Using administrative data and focusing on the roles of job ladder dynamics and on-the-job learning, we document that 1) lower LE workers change jobs more often, mainly driven by higher nonemployment; 2) earnings growth for job stayers is similar at around 2 percent in the bottom two-thirds of the LE distribution, whereas for job switchers it rises with LE; and 3) top LE workers enjoy high earnings growth regardless of job switching. We estimate a job ladder model with on-the-job learning featuring ex ante heterogeneity in learning ability and job ladder risk—job loss, job finding, and contact rates. We find that learning ability differences explain almost all earnings growth heterogeneity above the median, whereas ex ante heterogeneity in job ladder risk accounts for 80 percent of LE growth differences below the median.

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  • Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2019. "Anatomy of Lifetime Earnings Inequality: Heterogeneity in Job Ladder Risk vs. Human Capital," Staff Reports 908, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:86684
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    3. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2021. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal About Lifecycle Earnings Dynamics?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2303-2339, September.
    4. Elin Halvorsen & Hans A Holter & Serdar Ozkan & Kjetil Storesletten, 2024. "Dissecting Idiosyncratic Earnings Risk," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 617-668.
    5. Caplin, Andrew & Gregory, Victoria & Lee, Eungik & Leth-Petersen, Søren & Sæverud, Johan, 2023. "Subjective Earnings Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 17987, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
      • Andrew Caplin & Victoria Gregory & Eungik Lee & Soeren Leth-Petersen & Johan Saeverud, 2023. "Subjective Earnings Risk," CEBI working paper series 23-01, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
      • Andrew Caplin & Victoria Gregory & Eungik Lee & Soren Leth-Petersen & Johan Sæverud, 2023. "Subjective Earnings Risk," Working Papers 2023-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 04 Jan 2024.
      • Andrew Caplin & Victoria Gregory & Eungik Lee & Søren Leth-Petersen & Johan Sæverud, 2023. "Subjective Earnings Risk," NBER Working Papers 31019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Serdar Ozkan ⓡ & Joachim Hubmer ⓡ & Sergio Salgado ⓡ & Elin Halvorsen ⓡ & Serdar Ozkan, 2023. "Why Are the Wealthiest So Wealthy? A Longitudinal Empirical Investigation," CESifo Working Paper Series 10324, CESifo.
    7. Victoria Gregory & Guido Menzio & David G. Wiczer, 2021. "The Alpha Beta Gamma of the Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 28663, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    10. Victoria Gregory, 2020. "Firms as Learning Environments: Implications for Earnings Dynamics and Job Search," Working Papers 2020-036, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Sep 2023.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inequality; job ladder; Pareto tails;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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