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Disentangling the Effects of the 2018-2019 Tariffs on a Globally Connected U.S. Manufacturing Sector

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Abstract
Since the beginning of 2018, the United States has undertaken unprecedented tariff increases, with one goal of these actions being to boost the manufacturing sector. In this paper, we estimate the effect of the tariffs---including retaliatory tariffs by U.S. trading partners---on manufacturing employment, output, and producer prices. A key feature of our analysis is accounting for the multiple ways that tariffs might affect the manufacturing sector, including providing protection for domestic industries, raising costs for imported inputs, and harming competitiveness in overseas markets due to retaliatory tariffs. We find that U.S. manufacturing industries more exposed to tariff increases experience relative reductions in employment as a positive effect from import protection is offset by larger negative effects from rising input costs and retaliatory tariffs. Higher tariffs are also associated with relative increases in producer prices via rising input costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Aaron Flaaen & Justin R. Pierce, 2019. "Disentangling the Effects of the 2018-2019 Tariffs on a Globally Connected U.S. Manufacturing Sector," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-086, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2019-86
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2019.086
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chad Brown & Paola Conconi & Aksel Erbahar & Lorenzo Trimarchi, 2020. "Trade Protection Along Supply Chains," Working Papers ECARES 2020-52, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Ma, Hong & Ning, Jingxin & Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy), 2021. "An eye for an eye? The trade and price effects of China's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    3. Kreuter, Helena & Riccaboni, Massimo, 2023. "The impact of import tariffs on GDP and consumer welfare: A production network approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Leona Shao-Zhi Li & Yize Liu & Jia Yuan, 2024. "The effect of the U.S.–China trade war on Chinese corporate innovation: A curse or a blessing?," Working Papers 202418, University of Macau, Faculty of Business Administration.
    5. Pablo Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi Goldberg & Patrick Kennedy & Amit Khandelwal & Daria Taglioni, 2024. "The US-China Trade War and Global Reallocations," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 295-312, June.
    6. Dolan, Lindsay & Kubinec, Robert & Nielson, Daniel & Zhang, Jack, 2021. "A Field Experiment on Business Opposition to the U.S.-China Trade War," SocArXiv 435u9, Center for Open Science.
    7. Cui, Chuantao & Li, Leona Shao-Zhi, 2021. "The effect of the US–China trade war on Chinese new firm entry," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    8. Ricardo Correa & Julian di Giovanni & Linda S. Goldberg & Camelia Minoiu, 2023. "Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending," NBER Working Papers 31860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Han Hu & Shihui Yang & Lin Zeng & Xuesi Zhang, 2024. "U.S.–China trade conflicts and R&D investment: evidence from the BIS entity lists," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Haya Hoja & Pei Yu, 2022. "Developing and Enhancing the Competitiveness of the Palestinian National Product: The Leather and Footwear Sector—Analysis and Evaluation of Government Interventions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-29, June.
    11. Xu, Yingying & Lien, Donald, 2020. "Dynamic exchange rate dependences: The effect of the U.S.-China trade war," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    12. Xu, Yang & Huang, Wei & Zhang, Cherry Yi, 2024. "Navigating international competition with ESG: Insights from the US-China trade war," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Manufacturing; Industry; Tariffs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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