[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v203y2021ics0165176521001233.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effect of the US–China trade war on Chinese new firm entry

Author

Listed:
  • Cui, Chuantao
  • Li, Leona Shao-Zhi
Abstract
This study offers new empirical evidence on the connection between international trade and domestic entrepreneurial activities. Exploiting the tariff variation across industries and time during the recent US–China trade war, we find that the US import tariff increases are associated with relative reductions in Chinese new firm entry rates. The negative impact is more pronounced among industries that are dependent on US exports and with a higher irreversible investment ratio. Heterogeneity across regions with varying institutional quality is also identified. Robustness tests are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Cui, Chuantao & Li, Leona Shao-Zhi, 2021. "The effect of the US–China trade war on Chinese new firm entry," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:203:y:2021:i:c:s0165176521001233
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109846
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176521001233
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109846?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caldara, Dario & Iacoviello, Matteo & Molligo, Patrick & Prestipino, Andrea & Raffo, Andrea, 2020. "The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 38-59.
    2. David B. Audretsch & Max Keilbach, 2007. "The Theory of Knowledge Spillover Entrepreneurship," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(7), pages 1242-1254, November.
    3. Yasuhiro Sato & Takatoshi Tabuchi & Kazuhiro Yamamoto, 2012. "Market size and entrepreneurship," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(6), pages 1139-1166, November.
    4. Marc J. Melitz & Giancarlo I. P. Ottaviano, 2021. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 4, pages 87-108, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Cherkashin, Ivan & Demidova, Svetlana & Kee, Hiau Looi & Krishna, Kala, 2015. "Firm heterogeneity and costly trade: A new estimation strategy and policy experiments," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 18-36.
    6. Klapper, Leora & Laeven, Luc & Rajan, Raghuram, 2006. "Entry regulation as a barrier to entrepreneurship," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 591-629, December.
    7. Sooil Kim & Jeffrey J. Reimer & Munisamy Gopinath, 2011. "The Impact Of Trade Costs On Firm Entry, Exporting, And Survival In Korea," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(2), pages 434-446, April.
    8. Mary Amiti & Stephen J. Redding & David E. Weinstein, 2020. "Who's Paying for the US Tariffs? A Longer-Term Perspective," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 541-546, May.
    9. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2009. "A Concordance Between Ten-Digit U.S. Harmonized System Codes and SIC/NAICS Product Classes and Industries," NBER Working Papers 15548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Randolph Luca Bruno & Maria Bytchkova & Saul Estrin, 2013. "Institutional Determinants of New Firm Entry in Russia: A Cross-Regional Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1740-1749, December.
    11. Mike Waugh, 2019. "The Consumption Response to Trade Shocks," 2019 Meeting Papers 1226, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Lorenzo Caliendo & Robert C. Feenstra & John Romalis & Alan M. Taylor, 2015. "Tariff Reductions, Entry, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for the Last Two Decades," NBER Working Papers 21768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    14. Mercedes Delgado & Michael E. Porter & Scott Stern, 2010. "Clusters and entrepreneurship," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(4), pages 495-518, July.
    15. Aaron Flaaen & Justin R. Pierce, 2019. "Disentangling the Effects of the 2018-2019 Tariffs on a Globally Connected U.S. Manufacturing Sector," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-086, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Marc J. Melitz & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, 2008. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity (DOI:10.111/j.1467-937x.2007.00463.x)," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(3), pages 985-985.
    17. Hyunseob Kim & Howard Kung, 2017. "The Asset Redeployability Channel: How Uncertainty Affects Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 245-280.
    18. Nancy Stokey, 2016. "Wait-and See: Investment Options under Policy Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 246-265, July.
    19. Michael E. Waugh, 2019. "The Consumption Response to Trade Shocks: Evidence from the US-China Trade War," NBER Working Papers 26353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chor, Davin & Li, Bingjing, 2024. "Illuminating the effects of the US-China tariff war on China’s economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    2. Chen, Yanhua & Pantelous, Athanasios A., 2022. "The U.S.-China trade conflict impacts on the Chinese and U.S. stock markets: A network-based approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    3. Marc Atkins & Christian Peitz, 2023. "The world's largest free trade agreement RCEP and its financial markets - A perspective on volatility and risk," Working Papers Dissertations 113, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    4. Leona Shao-Zhi Li & Yize Liu & Jia Yuan, 2024. "The effect of the U.S.–China trade war on Chinese corporate innovation: A curse or a blessing?," Working Papers 202418, University of Macau, Faculty of Business Administration.
    5. ITO Tadashi, 2022. "The Effects of Trump's Trade War with China on Japan's Trade," Discussion papers 22019, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cui, Chuantao & Li, Leona Shao-Zhi, 2023. "Trade policy uncertainty and new firm entry: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    2. Lorenzo Caliendo & Robert C. Feenstra & John Romalis & Alan M. Taylor, 2023. "Tariff Reductions, Heterogeneous Firms, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for 1990–2010," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(4), pages 817-851, December.
    3. Chuantao Cui & Leona Shao-Zhi Li, 2024. "More but not better: Career incentives of local leaders and entrepreneurial entry in China," Working Papers 202417, University of Macau, Faculty of Business Administration.
    4. Çağatay Bircan & Ralph De Haas, 2020. "The Limits of Lending? Banks and Technology Adoption across Russia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(2), pages 536-609.
    5. Combes, Pierre-Philippe & Gobillon, Laurent, 2015. "The Empirics of Agglomeration Economies," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 247-348, Elsevier.
    6. Sanyal, Anirban, 2023. "Caught in the Crossfire: How Trade Policy Uncertainty Impacts Global Trade," EconStor Preprints 272825, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. He, Chuan & Mau, Karsten & Xu, Mingzhi, 2021. "Trade Shocks and Firms Hiring Decisions: Evidence from Vacancy Postings of Chinese Firms in the Trade War," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    8. Fan, Haichao & Gao, Xiang & Zhang, Lina, 2021. "How China's accession to the WTO affects global welfare?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    9. Ma, Hong & Ning, Jingxin & Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy), 2021. "An eye for an eye? The trade and price effects of China's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    10. Pierce, Justin R., 2011. "Plant-level responses to antidumping duties: Evidence from U.S. manufacturers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 222-233.
    11. Pablo Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi Goldberg & Patrick Kennedy & Amit Khandelwal & Daria Taglioni, 2024. "The US-China Trade War and Global Reallocations," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 295-312, June.
    12. Kouamé, Wilfried A.K. & Tapsoba, Sampawende J.-A., 2019. "Structural reforms and firms’ productivity: Evidence from developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 157-171.
    13. Bai, Xue & Hong, Shengjie & Wang, Yaqi, 2021. "Learning from processing trade: Firm evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 579-602.
    14. Andrew N. Greenland & Mihai Ion & John W. Lopresti & Peter K. Schott, 2020. "Using Equity Market Reactions to Infer Exposure to Trade Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 27510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Chiara Criscuolo & Peter N. Gal & Carlo Menon, 2014. "The Dynamics of Employment Growth: New Evidence from 18 Countries," CEP Discussion Papers dp1274, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    16. Martín Tobal, 2017. "Regulatory Entry Barriers, Rent Shifting and the Home Market Effect," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 76-97, February.
    17. Nigai, Sergey, 2017. "A tale of two tails: Productivity distribution and the gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 44-62.
    18. Imbruno, Michele & Ketterer, Tobias D., 2018. "Energy efficiency gains from importing intermediate inputs: Firm-level evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 117-141.
    19. Michele Imbruno, 2021. "A micro‐founded approach to exploring gains from trade integration: Evidence from 27 EU countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 706-732, March.
    20. Jan Bena & Peter Ondko & Evangelia Vourvachaki, 2011. "Productivity Gains from Services Liberalization in Europe," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp452, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International trade; US–China trade war; Tariff shocks; Firm entry; Entrepreneurship;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:203:y:2021:i:c:s0165176521001233. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.