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Geographical Distribution of Crime in Italian Provinces: A Spatial Econometric Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Teodora Erika Uberti

    (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)

  • Maria Francesca Cracolici

    (Catholic University of Milano)

Abstract
For a long time social sciences scholars from different fields have devoted their attention to identifying the causes leading to commit criminal offences and recently lots of studies have included the analysis of spatial effects. Respect to the Italian crime phenomenon some stylized facts exist: high spatial and time variability and presence of “organised crime” (e.g. Mafia and Camorra) deep-seated in some local territorial areas. Using explanatory spatial data analysis, the paper firstly explores the spatial structure and distribution of four different typologies of crimes (murders, thefts, frauds, and squeezes) in Italian provinces in two years, 1999 and 2003. ESDA allows us to detect some important geographical dimensions and to distinguish crucial macro- and micro- territorial aspects of offences. Further, on the basis of Becker-Ehrlich model, a spatial cross-sectional model including deterrence, economic and socio-demographic variables has been performed to investigate the determinants of Italian crime for 1999 and 2003 and its “neighbouring” effects, measured in terms of geographical and relational proximity. The empirical results obtained by using different spatial weights matrices highlighted that socioeconomic variables have a relevant impact on crime activities, but their role changes enormously respect to crimes against person (murders) or against property (thefts, frauds and squeezes). It is worthy to notice that severity does not show the expected sign: its significant and positive sign should suggest that inflicting more severe punishments does not always constitute a deterrence to commit crime, but it works on the opposite direction.

Suggested Citation

  • Teodora Erika Uberti & Maria Francesca Cracolici, 2008. "Geographical Distribution of Crime in Italian Provinces: A Spatial Econometric Analysis," Working Papers 2008.11, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2008.11
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rosetta Lombardo, 2016. "Is there also a North–South Divide in the Diffusion of Crime? A Cluster Analysis of Italian Provinces," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 443-455, May.
    2. McIntyre, Stuart G. & Lacombe, Donald J., 2012. "Personal Indebtedness, Spatial Effects and Crime," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-83, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    3. Rosetta Lombardo & Marianna Falcone, 2011. "Crime And Economic Performance. A Cluster Analysis Of Panel Data On Italy'S Nuts 3 Regions," Working Papers 201112, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF.
    4. Leiva, Mauricio & Vasquez-Lavín, Felipe & Ponce Oliva, Roberto D., 2020. "Do immigrants increase crime? Spatial analysis in a middle-income country," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Becker, Sascha & Egger, Peter H & Seidel, Tobias, 2008. "Corruption Epidemics," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2008-09, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    6. Umbach, Tim, 2020. "A Vicious Cycle of Regional Unemployment and Crime? - Evidence from German Counties," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224611, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Luca Zamparini & Anna Serena Vergori & Serena Arima, 2017. "Assessing the determinants of local tourism demand," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 981-992, August.
    8. Germá-Bel & Maximilian Holst, 2016. "“A two-Sided coin: Disentangling the economic effects of the 'War on drugs' in Mexico”," IREA Working Papers 201611, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Apr 2016.
    9. Amedeo Argentiero & Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano, 2020. "Does Tax Evasion Affect Economic Crime?," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 441-482, June.
    10. Luigi M. Solivetti, 2016. "Crime Patterns between Tradition and Change: A Territorial Analysis of the Italian Provinces," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 128(2), pages 531-558, September.
    11. Mario A. Maggioni & T. Erika Uberti & Francesca Gambarotto, 2009. "Mapping the Evolution of "Clusters": A Meta-analysis," Working Papers 2009.74, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    12. Tadao Hoshino, 2018. "Semiparametric Spatial Autoregressive Models With Endogenous Regressors: With an Application to Crime Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 160-172, January.
    13. Lin, Xu & Zhang, Jihu & Jiang, Shanhe, 2022. "Spatial and temporal correlations of crime in Detroit: Evidence from spatial dynamic panel data models," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    14. Kerri Agnew, 2020. "Crime highways: The effect of motorway expansion on burglary rates," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(5), pages 995-1024, November.
    15. McIntyre, Stuart G. & Lacombe, Donald J., 2012. "Personal indebtedness, spatial effects and crime," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 455-459.
    16. Tichaona Chikore & Farai Nyabadza & K. A. Jane White, 2023. "Exploring the Impact of Nonlinearities in Police Recruitment and Criminal Capture Rates: A Population Dynamics Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-13, March.
    17. Bo Sui & Gen-Fu Feng & Chun-Ping Chang, 2018. "The pioneer evidence of contagious corruption," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 945-968, March.
    18. Becker, Sascha O. & Egger, Peter H. & Seidel, Tobias, 2009. "Common political culture: Evidence on regional corruption contagion," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 300-310, September.
    19. Giovanni Bernardo & Irene Brunetti & Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos, 2021. "Measuring the presence of organized crime across Italian provinces: a sensitivity analysis," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 31-95, February.
    20. Daniele, Vittorio & Marani, Ugo, 2011. "Organized crime, the quality of local institutions and FDI in Italy: A panel data analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 132-142, March.
    21. Amedeo Argentiero & Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano, 2015. "Tax Evasion and Economic Crime. Empirical Evidence for Italy," CESifo Working Paper Series 5497, CESifo.
    22. Juan Felipe Mejía Mejía & Hermilson Velasquez Ceballos & Andres Felipe Sanchez Saldarriaga, 2018. "Internal forced displacement and crime: Evidence from Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 16450, Universidad EAFIT.
    23. Rullan Rinaldi & Eva Nurwita, 2010. "The Spatial Dimension of Human Development Index in Indonesia," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201001, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Jun 2010.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crime; Spatial Econometrics;

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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