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Geographical distribution of crime in Italian provinces: a spatial econometric analysis

Author

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  • Maria Cracolici
  • Teodora Uberti
Abstract
In den letzten Jahren hat die zunehmende Kriminalitätsrate der modernen Volkswirtschaften die Aufmerksamkeit der Soziologen und Ökonomen auf sich gezogen um die Ursachen zu ermitteln, die dazu führen diese Straftaten zu begehen. Das Ziel dieser Studie ist die Ursachen der Kriminellen Aktivitäten in 103 italienischen Provinzen für die Jahre 1999 und 2003 zu ermitteln. Dieses Phänomen zeichnet sich durch einige stilisierte Fakten: hohe räumliche und zeitliche Veränderlichkeit von kriminellen Aktivitäten und die Präsenz von “organisiertem Verbrechen” (z. B. Mafia und Camorra) örtlich in regionalen Gebieten eingegrenzt. Mittels der explanatory spatial data analysis (ESDA) untersucht die Studie zunächst die räumliche Struktur und Verteilung von vier verschiedenen Arten von Verbrechen: Mord, Diebstahl, Betrug und Erpressung. ESDA ermöglicht es uns wichtige geographische Dimensionen zu ermitteln und bedeutende Mikro- und Makro-regionale Aspekte von Straftaten zu unterscheiden. Weiterhin, auf der Grundlage des Becker-Ehrlich Modells, wurde ein räumlicher Querschnitt-Modell erstellt, welches Abschreckungsvariabeln, wirtschaftliche und sozio-demographische Variablen miteinbezieht, um die Ursachen zu ermitteln, gemessen bezüglich der geographischen und relationalen Nähe, welche die italienische Kriminalität für die Jahre 1999 und 2003 und ihre “benachbarten” Auswirkungen prägen. Mittels der unterschiedlichen räumlich gewichteten Matrizen zeigen die Ergebnisse, dass die sozio-ökonomischen Variablen eine relevante Auswirkung auf die Kriminellen Aktivitäten haben, aber ihre Rolle sich erheblich ändert mit Bezug auf Verbrechen gegen die Person (Mord) oder gegen Eigentum (Diebstahl, Betrug und Erpressung). Copyright Springer-Verlag 2009

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  • Maria Cracolici & Teodora Uberti, 2009. "Geographical distribution of crime in Italian provinces: a spatial econometric analysis," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 29(1), pages 1-28, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jahrfr:v:29:y:2009:i:1:p:1-28
    DOI: 10.1007/s10037-008-0031-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Luigi M. Solivetti, 2016. "Crime Patterns between Tradition and Change: A Territorial Analysis of the Italian Provinces," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 128(2), pages 531-558, September.
    2. Bo Sui & Gen-Fu Feng & Chun-Ping Chang, 2018. "The pioneer evidence of contagious corruption," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 945-968, March.
    3. Rosetta Lombardo, 2016. "Is there also a North–South Divide in the Diffusion of Crime? A Cluster Analysis of Italian Provinces," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 443-455, May.
    4. Becker, Sascha & Egger, Peter H & Seidel, Tobias, 2008. "Corruption Epidemics," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2008-09, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    5. McIntyre, Stuart G. & Lacombe, Donald J., 2012. "Personal Indebtedness, Spatial Effects and Crime," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-83, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    6. Mario A. Maggioni & T. Erika Uberti & Francesca Gambarotto, 2009. "Mapping the Evolution of "Clusters": A Meta-analysis," Working Papers 2009.74, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    7. Tadao Hoshino, 2018. "Semiparametric Spatial Autoregressive Models With Endogenous Regressors: With an Application to Crime Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 160-172, January.
    8. Becker, Sascha O. & Egger, Peter H. & Seidel, Tobias, 2009. "Common political culture: Evidence on regional corruption contagion," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 300-310, September.
    9. Giovanni Bernardo & Irene Brunetti & Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos, 2021. "Measuring the presence of organized crime across Italian provinces: a sensitivity analysis," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 31-95, February.
    10. Umbach, Tim, 2020. "A Vicious Cycle of Regional Unemployment and Crime? - Evidence from German Counties," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224611, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Daniele, Vittorio & Marani, Ugo, 2011. "Organized crime, the quality of local institutions and FDI in Italy: A panel data analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 132-142, March.
    12. Lin, Xu & Zhang, Jihu & Jiang, Shanhe, 2022. "Spatial and temporal correlations of crime in Detroit: Evidence from spatial dynamic panel data models," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    13. Amedeo Argentiero & Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano, 2020. "Does Tax Evasion Affect Economic Crime?," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 441-482, June.
    14. Kerri Agnew, 2020. "Crime highways: The effect of motorway expansion on burglary rates," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(5), pages 995-1024, November.
    15. McIntyre, Stuart G. & Lacombe, Donald J., 2012. "Personal indebtedness, spatial effects and crime," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 455-459.
    16. Rosetta Lombardo & Marianna Falcone, 2011. "Crime And Economic Performance. A Cluster Analysis Of Panel Data On Italy'S Nuts 3 Regions," Working Papers 201112, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF.
    17. Amedeo Argentiero & Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano, 2015. "Tax Evasion and Economic Crime. Empirical Evidence for Italy," CESifo Working Paper Series 5497, CESifo.
    18. Leiva, Mauricio & Vasquez-Lavín, Felipe & Ponce Oliva, Roberto D., 2020. "Do immigrants increase crime? Spatial analysis in a middle-income country," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    19. Juan Felipe Mejía Mejía & Hermilson Velasquez Ceballos & Andres Felipe Sanchez Saldarriaga, 2018. "Internal forced displacement and crime: Evidence from Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 16450, Universidad EAFIT.
    20. Tichaona Chikore & Farai Nyabadza & K. A. Jane White, 2023. "Exploring the Impact of Nonlinearities in Police Recruitment and Criminal Capture Rates: A Population Dynamics Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-13, March.
    21. Luca Zamparini & Anna Serena Vergori & Serena Arima, 2017. "Assessing the determinants of local tourism demand," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 981-992, August.
    22. Germá-Bel & Maximilian Holst, 2016. "“A two-Sided coin: Disentangling the economic effects of the 'War on drugs' in Mexico”," IREA Working Papers 201611, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Apr 2016.
    23. Rullan Rinaldi & Eva Nurwita, 2010. "The Spatial Dimension of Human Development Index in Indonesia," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201001, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Jun 2010.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crime; Spatial analysis; Distance weights matrix; Relational weights matrix;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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