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The Political-Economy Trilemma

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua AIZENMAN
  • ITO Hiroyuki
Abstract
This paper investigates the political-economy trilemma: policy makers face a trade-off of choosing two out of three policy goals or governance styles, namely, (hyper-)globalization, national sovereignty, and democracy. We develop a set of indexes that measure the extent of attainment of the three factors for 139 countries in the period of 1975-2016. Using these indexes, we examine the validity of the hypothesis of the political-economy trilemma by testing whether the three trilemma variables are linearly related. We find that, for industrialized countries, there is a linear relationship between globalization and national sovereignty (i.e., a dilemma), and that for developing countries, all three indexes are linearly correlated (i.e., a trilemma). We also investigate whether and how three political-economic factors affect the degree of political and financial stability. The results indicate that more democratic industrialized countries tend to experience more political instability, while developing countries tend to be able to stabilize their politics if they are more democratic. The lower level of national sovereignty an industrialized country attains, the more stable its political situation tends to be, while a higher level of sovereignty helps a developing country to stabilize its politics. Globalization brings about political stability for both groups of countries. Furthermore, more globalized countries, whether industrial or developing, tend to experience more financial stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua AIZENMAN & ITO Hiroyuki, 2020. "The Political-Economy Trilemma," Discussion papers 20018, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:20018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Funke, Michael & Zhong, Doudou, 2020. "The political globalisation trilemma revisited: An empirical assessment across countries and over time," BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2020, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2020_019 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Michael Funke & Doudou Zhong, 2024. "The political globalization trilemma revisited: An empirical assessment across countries and over time," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 177-201, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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