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Testing the TASP: An Experimental Investigation of Learning in Games with Unstable Equilibria

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Abstract
We report experiments designed to test between Nash equilibria that are stable and unstable under learning. The "TASP" (Time Average of the Shapley Polygon) gives a precise prediction about what happens when there is divergence from equilibrium under fictitious play like learning processes. We use two 4 x 4 games each with a unique mixed Nash equilibrium; one is stable and one is unstable under learning. Both games are versions of Rock-Paper-Scissors with the addition of a fourth strategy, Dumb. Nash equilibrium places a weight of 1/2 on Dumb in both games, but the TASP places no weight on Dumb when the equilibrium is unstable. We also vary the level of monetary payoffs with higher payoffs predicted to increase instability. We find that the high payoff unstable treatment differs from the others. Frequency of Dumb is lower and play is further from Nash than in the other treatments. That is, we find support for the comparative statics prediction of learning theory, although the frequency of Dumb is substantially greater than zero in the unstable treatments.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy N. Cason & Daniel Friedman & Ed Hopkins, 2009. "Testing the TASP: An Experimental Investigation of Learning in Games with Unstable Equilibria," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 188, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    • Handle: RePEc:edn:esedps:188
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    Cited by:

    1. Timothy N. Cason & Daniel Friedman & ED Hopkins, 2014. "Cycles and Instability in a Rock--Paper--Scissors Population Game: A Continuous Time Experiment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(1), pages 112-136.
    2. Christoph Kuzmics & Daniel Rodenburger, 2020. "A case of evolutionarily stable attainable equilibrium in the laboratory," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 70(3), pages 685-721, October.
    3. Bouton, Laurent & Castanheira, Micael & Llorente-Saguer, Aniol, 2016. "Divided majority and information aggregation: Theory and experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 114-128.
    4. Wang Yijia & Wang Zhijian, 2023. "Pulse in collapse: a game dynamics experiment," Papers 2302.09336, arXiv.org.
    5. Timothy N. Cason & Daniel Friedman & Ed Hopkins, 2021. "An Experimental Investigation of Price Dispersion and Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(3), pages 789-841.
    6. Bouton, Laurent & Castanheira, Micael & Llorente-Saguer, Aniol, 2016. "Divided majority and information aggregation: Theory and experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 114-128.
    7. Martin Hahn, 2012. "An Evolutionary Analysis of Varian’s Model of Sales," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 71-96, March.
    8. Antonio Cabrales & José-Ramón Uriarte, 2013. "Doubts and equilibria," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 783-810, September.
    9. Wang, Yijia & Chen, Xiaojie & Wang, Zhijian, 2017. "Testability of evolutionary game dynamics based on experimental economics data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 486(C), pages 455-464.
    10. Wang Zhijian & Shan Lixia & Yao Qinmei & Wang Yijia, 2024. "Human game experiment to verify the equilibrium selection controlled by design," Papers 2411.06847, arXiv.org.
    11. Zhijian Wang & Qinmei Yao & Yijia Wang, 2022. "Eigen mode selection in human subject game experiment," Papers 2204.08071, arXiv.org.
    12. Zhijian Wang & Shujie Zhou & Qinmei Yao & Yijia Wang, 2022. "Dynamic Structure in Four-strategy Game: Theory and Experiment," Papers 2203.14669, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    games; experiments; TASP; learning; unstable; mixed equilibrium; fictitious play;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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