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Knightian uncertainty and credit cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Gerba, Eddie
  • Żochowski, Dawid
Abstract
The Great Recession has been characterised by the two stylized facts: the buildup of leverage in the household sector in the period preceding the recession and a protracted economic recovery that followed. We attempt to explain these two facts as an information friction, whereby agents are uncertain about a new state of the economy following a financial innovation. To this end, we extend Boz and Mendoza (2014) by explicitly modelling the credit markets and by modifying the learning to an adaptive set-up. In our model the build-up of leverage and the collateral price cycles takes longer than in a stylized DSGE model with financial frictions. The boom-bust cycles occur as rare events, with two systemic crises per century. Financial stability is achieved with an LTV-cap regulation which smooths the leverage cycles through quantity (higher equity participation requirement) and price (lower collateral value) effects, as well as by providing an anchor in the learning process of agents. JEL Classification: G14, G17, G21, G32, E44, E58

Suggested Citation

  • Gerba, Eddie & Żochowski, Dawid, 2017. "Knightian uncertainty and credit cycles," Working Paper Series 2068, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172068
    Note: 2148517
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2068.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boz, Emine & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2014. "Financial innovation, the discovery of risk, and the U.S. credit crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-22.
    2. S. Rao Aiyagari & Mark Gertler, 1999. ""Overreaction" of Asset Prices in General Equilibrium," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 3-35, January.
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    6. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
    7. De Grauwe, Paul & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2015. "Animal spirits and credit cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 95-117.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Knightian uncertainty and credit cycles
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2017-06-14 01:13:22

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    Cited by:

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    2. Deryugina, Elena & Ponomarenko, Alexey & Rozhkova, Anna, 2020. "When are credit gap estimates reliable?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 221-238.
    3. Cokayne, Graeme & Gerba, Eddie & Kuchler, Andreas & Pank Roulund, Rasmus, 2024. "“Thank me later”: Why is (macro)prudence desirable?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    deregulation; financial engineering; leverage forecasting; macroprudential policy; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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