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Holding the Door Slightly Open: Germany’s Migrants’ Return Intentions and Realizations

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  • Hend Sallam
Abstract
Return migration intentions are complex and are not necessarily followed by future return migration. Our study compares successful return or repeated migration with self-declared return intentions. We take advantage of the latest German Socio-Economic Panel survey dropout studies and fieldwork to observe a wider return migration window than reported in the literature to answer the question of whether return migration intentions eventually coincided with actual emigration behaviors. We also examine the validity of return migration estimates. This paper explores whether return intentions eventually materialize, whether they can eventually predict actual return behaviors, and if the determinants of actual and predicted return based on intentions are similar. Overall, our results support that migration intentions can predict actual return behavior. While our results show discrepancies in the predictors of return intentions and actual returns, they show emigration intentions as good predictors of actual future emigration. Moreover, we find that life satisfaction significantly impacts the individual intention to remigrate.

Suggested Citation

  • Hend Sallam, 2023. "Holding the Door Slightly Open: Germany’s Migrants’ Return Intentions and Realizations," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1181, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1181
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    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.867436.de/diw_sp1181.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Amelie Constant & Douglas S. Massey, 2003. "Self-selection, earnings, and out-migration: A longitudinal study of immigrants to Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(4), pages 631-653, November.
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    3. Marcel Erlinghagen, 2016. "Anticipation of Life Satisfaction Before Emigration: Evidence from German Panel Data," Creative Economy, in: Toshiaki Tachibanaki (ed.), Advances in Happiness Research, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 229-244, Springer.
    4. Galor, Oded & Stark, Oded, 1990. "Migrants' Savings, the Probability of Return Migration and Migrants' Performance," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(2), pages 463-467, May.
    5. George J. Borjas & Bernt Bratsberg, 2021. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration Of The Foreign-Born," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 5, pages 93-104, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Schierup, Carl-Ulrik & Hansen, Peo & Castles, Stephen, 2006. "Migration, Citizenship, and the European Welfare State: A European Dilemma," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199284023.
    7. Amelie F. Constant, 2020. "Time-Space Dynamics of Return and Circular Migration: Theories and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 8053, CESifo.
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    9. Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0702, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
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    Cited by:

    1. Jacopo Bassetto & Teresa Freitas Monteiro, 2024. "Immigrants’ Returns Intentions and Job Search Behavior When the Home Country Is Unsafe," CESifo Working Paper Series 10908, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Return and repeat migration; emigration; self-selection; intentions and realizations; West Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being

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