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Out-migration and economic cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Rémi Bazillier

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [UMR7322] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Francesco Magris

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [UMR7322] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Daniel Mirza

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [UMR7322] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

Abstract
Out-migration concerns foreigners who decide to leave a country where they used to live. Taking advantage of the OECD bilateral IMS database, we analyze the short-run determinants of out-migration using a panel of Schengen countries between 1995 and 2011. We find that out-migration is counter-cyclical: foreign nationals tend to leave host countries with high unemployment, while they are likelier to stay in good times (i.e. low unemployment). Typically, a 10 % increase in the unemployment rate leads to a 5 % increase in out-migration. Thus, short-term economic fluctuations have the same qualitative effect as restrictive migration policies in economic downturns. However, we find mixed evidence for the role of economic cycles in the potential destination countries of those flows. Movers appear to be sensitive to unemployment changes in their country of origin, but they do not seem to be sensitive to business cycles in potential destinations.

Suggested Citation

  • Rémi Bazillier & Francesco Magris & Daniel Mirza, 2017. "Out-migration and economic cycles," Post-Print halshs-01375656, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01375656
    DOI: 10.1007/s10290-016-0267-8
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01375656
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Ismael Issifou & Francesco Magris, 2017. "Migration outflows and optimal migration policy: rules versus discretion," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 16(2), pages 87-112, August.
    2. Daniel MIRZA & Francesco MAGRIS & Rémi BAZILLIER, 2018. "Open Border Policies and the Exit of Migrants: Theory and Evidence from EU and Schengen Agreements," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2610, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.

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    Keywords

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