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Prevention And Mitigation Of Epidemics: Biodiversity Conservation And Confinement Policies

Author

Listed:
  • Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron

    (GREThA, Université de Bordeaux, France)

  • Giorgio Fabbri

    (Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRAE, Grenoble INP, GAEL, Grenoble, France.)

  • Katheline Schubert

    (Paris School of Economics, Université Paris 1 PanthéonSorbonne, France.)

Abstract
The relation between biodiversity loss and frequency/probability of zoonose pandemic risk is now well documented in the literature. In this article we present a first model to integrate this phenomenon in the context of a general equilibrium dynamic economic set-up. The occurrence of pandemic episodes is modeled as Poissonian leaps in stochastic economic variables. The planner can intervene in the economic and epidemiological dynamics in two ways: first (prevention), by deciding to preserve a greater quantity of biodiversity, thus decreasing the probability of a pandemic occurring, and second (mitigation), by reducing the death toll through a partial blockage of economic activity. The class of social welfare functional considered has, as polar cases, a total utilitarian and an average utilitarian specifications. It implicitly considers, at the same time, the effects of policies on mortality and on the productive capacity of the country. Thanks to the Epstein-Zin specification of preferences, we can distinguish between risk aversion and fluctuation aversion. The model is explicitly solved and the optimal policy completely described. The qualitative dependence of the optimal intervention as a function of natural, productivity and preference parameters is discussed. In particular the optimal lockdown is shown to be more severe in societies valuing more human life, and the optimal biodiversity conservation is shown to be more relevant for more “forward looking” societies, with a small discount rate and a high degree of altruism towards individuals of future generations. We also show that societies accepting a large welfare loss to mitigate the pandemics are also societies doing a lot of prevention, not to have to incur the loss too often. After calibrating the model with COVID-19 pandemic data we compare the mitigation efforts predicted by the model with those of the recent literature and we study the optimal prevention-mitigation policy mix.

Suggested Citation

  • Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron & Giorgio Fabbri & Katheline Schubert, 2020. "Prevention And Mitigation Of Epidemics: Biodiversity Conservation And Confinement Policies," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2020026, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2020026
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    Cited by:

    1. Marion Davin & Mouez Fodha & Thomas Seegmuller, 2021. "Environment, public debt and epidemics," AMSE Working Papers 2128, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    2. William Brock & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2022. "Emerging infectious diseases and the economy: climate change, natural world preservation, and containment policies," DEOS Working Papers 2208, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    3. William Brock & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2023. "Natural world preservation and infectious diseases: Land-use, climate change and innovation," DEOS Working Papers 2319, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    4. William Brock & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2022. "Climate Change, Natural World Preservation and the Emergence and Containment of Infectious Diseases," DEOS Working Papers 2232, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    5. William Brock & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2024. "Land-use, climate change and the emergence of infectious diseases: A synthesis," DEOS Working Papers 2409, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    6. Marion Davin & Mouez Fodha & Thomas Seegmuller, 2023. "Environment, public debt, and epidemics," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 25(6), pages 1270-1303, December.
    7. Barbier, Edward B., 2021. "Habitat loss and the risk of disease outbreak," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    8. Raouf Boucekkine & Shankha Chakraborty & Aditya Goenka & Lin Liu, 2024. "A Brief Tour of Economic Epidemiology Modelling," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2024002, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Biodiversity; COVID-19; prevention; mitigation; epidemics; Poisson processes; recursive preferences.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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