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Land-use, climate change and the emergence of infectious diseases: A synthesis

Author

Listed:
  • William Brock
  • Anastasios Xepapadeas
Abstract
Scientific evidence suggests that anthropogenic impacts on the environment, such as land-use changes and climate change, promote the emergence of infectious diseases (IDs) in humans. We provide a synthesis which captures interactions between the economy and the natural world and links climate, land-use and IDs. We develop a two-region integrated epidemic-economic model which unifies short-run disease containment policies with long-run policies which could control the drivers and the severity of IDs. We structure our paper by linking susceptible-infected-susceptible and susceptible-infected-recovered models with an economic model which includes land-use choices for agriculture, climate change and accumulation of knowledge that supports land-augmenting technical change. The ID contact number depends on short-run policies (e.g., lockdowns, vaccination), and long-run policies affecting land-use, the natural world and climate change. Climate change and land-use change have an additional cost in terms of IDs since they might increase the contact number in the long-run. We derive optimal short-run containment controls for a Nash equilibrium between regions, and long-run controls for climate policy, land-use, and knowledge at an open loop Nash equilibrium and the social optimum and unify the short- and long-run controls. We explore the impact of ambiguity aversion and model misspecification in the unified model and provide simulations which support the theoretical model.

Suggested Citation

  • William Brock & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2024. "Land-use, climate change and the emergence of infectious diseases: A synthesis," DEOS Working Papers 2409, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:aue:wpaper:2409
    as

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    File URL: http://wpa.deos.aueb.gr/docs/2024.EID.Innovation.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    infectious diseases; SIS and SIR models; natural world; climate change; land-use; containment; Nash equilibrium; OLNE; social optimum; land-augmenting technical change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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