[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/10856.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Beggar-thy-neighbor? The international effects of ECB unconventional monetary policy measures

Author

Listed:
  • Canova, Fabio
  • Bluwstein, Kristina
Abstract
The effects that European Central Bank unconventional monetary policy measures have on nine European countries not adopting the Euro are examined with a novel Bayesian mixed frequency Structural Vector Autoregressive technique. The technique accounts for the fact that macro, monetary and financial data have different frequencies. Unconventional monetary policy disturbances generate important domestic fluctuations. The wealth, the risk, and the portfolio rebalancing channels matter for international propagation; the credit channel does not. International spillovers are larger in countries with more advanced financial systems and a larger share of domestic banks. A comparison with conventional monetary policy disturbances and with announcement surprises is provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Canova, Fabio & Bluwstein, Kristina, 2015. "Beggar-thy-neighbor? The international effects of ECB unconventional monetary policy measures," CEPR Discussion Papers 10856, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10856
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP10856
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bhattarai, Saroj & Chatterjee, Arpita & Park, Woong Yong, 2021. "Effects of US quantitative easing on emerging market economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    2. Dedola, Luca & Rivolta, Giulia & Stracca, Livio, 2017. "If the Fed sneezes, who catches a cold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 23-41.
    3. Evgenia Passari & Hélène Rey, 2015. "Financial Flows and the International Monetary System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 675-698, May.
    4. Qian, Hang, 2013. "Vector Autoregression with Mixed Frequency Data," MPRA Paper 47856, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    6. Vivien Lewis & Markus Roth, 2015. "The financial market effects of the ECB’s balance sheet policies," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven 510356, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    7. Joshua Aizenman & Mahir Binici & Michael M. Hutchison, 2016. "The Transmission of Federal Reserve Tapering News to Emerging Financial Markets," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 317-356, June.
    8. John C. Williams & John B. Taylor, 2009. "A Black Swan in the Money Market," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 58-83, January.
    9. Michael B. Devereux & Eric R. Young & Changhua Yu, 2015. "A New Dilemma: Capital Controls and Monetary Policy in Sudden Stop Economies," NBER Working Papers 21791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Matteo Ciccarelli & Angela Maddaloni & José-Luis Peydró, 2013. "Heterogeneous transmission mechanism: monetary policy and financial fragility in the eurozone [Which financial frictions? Parsing the evidence from the financial crisis of 2007-9]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 28(75), pages 459-512.
    11. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2008. "The new area-wide model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 944, European Central Bank.
    12. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    13. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis, 2013. "Heterogeneous transmission mechanism: monetary policy and financial fragility in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1527, European Central Bank.
    14. Michele Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Monetary policy in exceptional times [Preventing deflation: Lessons from Japan’s experience in the 1990s]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(62), pages 295-339.
    15. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2016. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 29-57, September.
    16. Jef Boeckx & Maarten Dossche & Gert Peersman, 2017. "Effectiveness and Transmission of the ECB's Balance Sheet Policies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 297-333, February.
    17. Ongena, Steven & Schindele, Ibolya & Vonnák, Dzsamila, 2021. "In lands of foreign currency credit, bank lending channels run through?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    18. Martina Cecioni & Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2018. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in Theory and in Practice," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & George G Kaufman & A G Malliaris (ed.), Innovative Federal Reserve Policies During the Great Financial Crisis, chapter 1, pages 1-36, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    19. Darracq-Paries, Matthieu & De Santis, Roberto A., 2015. "A non-standard monetary policy shock: The ECB's 3-year LTROs and the shift in credit supply," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-34.
    20. Gita Gopinath, 2015. "The International Price System," NBER Working Papers 21646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    22. Leonardo Gambacorta & Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Cross‐Country Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 615-642, June.
    23. Eric Ghysels & Julien Idier & Simone Manganelli & Olivier Vergote, 2017. "A High-Frequency assessment of the ECB Securities Markets Programme," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 218-243.
    24. Qianying Chen & Andrew Filardo & Dong He & Feng Zhu, 2012. "International spillovers of central bank balance sheet policies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are central bank balance sheets in Asia too large?, volume 66, pages 220-264, Bank for International Settlements.
    25. Linzert, Tobias & Abbassi, Puriya, 2011. "The effectiveness of monetary policy in steering money market rates during the recent financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1328, European Central Bank.
    26. Neely, Christopher J., 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy had large international effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 101-111.
    27. Gert Peersman, 2012. "Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," 2012 Meeting Papers 400, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    28. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    29. Marcel Fratzscher & Marco Lo Duca & Roland Straub, 2018. "On the International Spillovers of US Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 330-377, February.
    30. Dmitry Kulikov & Aleksei Netsunajev, 2013. "Identifying monetary policy shocks via heteroskedasticity: a Bayesian approach," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2013-9, Bank of Estonia, revised 09 Dec 2013.
    31. Richhild Moessner, 2015. "International spillovers from US forward guidance to equity markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(42), pages 4549-4560, September.
    32. repec:nbb:reswpp:201411-275 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Fabio Canova, 2005. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 229-251.
    34. Menzie D Chinn, 2013. "Global spillovers and domestic monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 436, Bank for International Settlements.
    35. Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2015. "The ECB Unconventional Monetary Policies: Have They Lowered Market Borrowing Costs for Banks and Governments?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 91-127, December.
    36. Joseph E. Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian P. Sack, 2011. "Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve: did they work?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 17(May), pages 41-59.
    37. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2001. "The Transmission Mechanism and the Role of Asset Prices in Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket & Stocker, Marc, 2014. "Tinker, taper, QE, bye ? the effect of quantitative easing on financial flows to developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6820, The World Bank.
    39. Paolo Angelini & Stefano Neri & Fabio Panetta, 2011. "Monetary and macroprudential policies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 801, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    40. von Borstel, Julia & Eickmeier, Sandra & Krippner, Leo, 2016. "The interest rate pass-through in the euro area during the sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 386-402.
    41. Mardi Dungey & Adrian Pagan, 2009. "Extending a SVAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(268), pages 1-20, March.
    42. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2016. "Monetary policy spillovers and the trilemma in the new normal: Periphery country sensitivity to core country conditions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 298-330.
    43. Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Structural vector autoregressions," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 22, pages 515-554, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    44. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "Mixed frequency structural models: estimation, and policy analysis," Working Paper 2013/15, Norges Bank.
    45. John Taylor & John Williams, 2008. "Further Results on a Black Swan in the Money Market," Discussion Papers 07-046, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    46. Carrera, César & Ramírez-rondán, Nelson R., 2020. "Effects Of Us Quantitative Easing On Latin American Economies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(8), pages 1989-2011, December.
    47. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14524 is not listed on IDEAS
    48. Bjørn Eraker & Ching Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Andrew T. Foerster & Tae Bong Kim & Hernán D. Seoane, 2015. "Bayesian Mixed Frequency VARs," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 698-721.
    49. Steven Russell, 1992. "Understanding the term structure of interest rates: the expectations theory," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 36-50.
    50. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    51. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(2), pages 535-564.
    52. Roberto A. De Santis & Paolo Surico, 2013. "Bank lending and monetary transmission in the euro area [Bank capital, bank lending and monetary policy in the euro area]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 28(75), pages 423-457.
    53. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
    54. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S. Goldberg, 2012. "Banking Globalization and Monetary Transmission," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(5), pages 1811-1843, October.
    55. Beirne, John & Dalitz, Lars & Ejsing, Jacob & Grothe, Magdalena & Manganelli, Simone & Monar, Fernando & Sahel, Benjamin & Sušec, Matjaž & Tapking, Jens & Vong, Tana, 2011. "The impact of the Eurosystem's covered bond purchase programme on the primary and secondary markets," Occasional Paper Series 122, European Central Bank.
    56. John H. Rogers & Chiara Scotti & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Comparison," International Finance Discussion Papers 1101, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    57. Beirne, John & Tapking, Jens & Sahel, Benjamin & Sušec, Matjaž & Monar, Fernando & Manganelli, Simone & Grothe, Magdalena & Ejsing, Jacob & Dalitz, Lars & Vong, Tana, 2011. "The impact of the Eurosystem's covered bond purchase programme on the primary and secondary markets," Occasional Paper Series 122, European Central Bank.
    58. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession," NBER Working Papers 18094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Claudio Borio & Anna Zabai, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policies: a re-appraisal," Chapters, in: Peter Conti-Brown & Rosa M. Lastra (ed.), Research Handbook on Central Banking, chapter 20, pages 398-444, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Zekeriya Yildirim & Mehmet Ivrendi, 2021. "Spillovers of US unconventional monetary policy: quantitative easing, spreads, and international financial markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-38, December.
    3. Margaux MacDonald & Michał Ksawery Popiel, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 1061-1115, November.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1plbkk1i83dqp9vh69uffirf is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Mathilde Viennot, 2016. "The effect of ECB monetary policies on interest rates and volumes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(47), pages 4477-4501, October.
    6. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1plbkk1i83dqp9vh69uffirf is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Babecká Kucharčuková, Oxana & Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2016. "Spillover of the ECB's monetary policy outside the euro area: How different is conventional from unconventional policy?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 199-225.
    9. Bhattarai, Saroj & Chatterjee, Arpita & Park, Woong Yong, 2021. "Effects of US quantitative easing on emerging market economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    10. repec:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_2017_num_494_1_10781 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi.
    12. Falagiarda, Matteo & Reitz, Stefan, 2015. "Announcements of ECB unconventional programs: Implications for the sovereign spreads of stressed euro area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 276-295.
    13. McQuade, Peter & Falagiarda, Matteo & Tirpák, Marcel, 2015. "Spillovers from the ECB's non-standard monetary policies on non-euro area EU countries: evidence from an event-study analysis," Working Paper Series 1869, European Central Bank.
    14. Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2024. "Does one (unconventional) size fit all? Effects of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policies on the euro area economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    15. Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2015. "The ECB Unconventional Monetary Policies: Have They Lowered Market Borrowing Costs for Banks and Governments?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 91-127, December.
    16. Hachula, Michael & Piffer, Michele & Rieth, Malte, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policy, Fiscal Side Effects and Euro Area (Im)balances," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 18(1), pages 202-231.
    17. Kabaca, Serdar & Tuzcuoglu, Kerem, 2024. "International transmission of quantitative easing policies: Evidence from Canada," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    18. Anusha Chari & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Christian Lundblad, 2017. "Taper Tantrums: QE, its Aftermath and Emerging Market Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 23474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Feldkircher, Martin & Gruber, Thomas & Huber, Florian, 2020. "International effects of a compression of euro area yield curves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    20. Chen, Qianying & Filardo, Andrew & He, Dong & Zhu, Feng, 2016. "Financial crisis, US unconventional monetary policy and international spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 62-81.
    21. Borrallo Egea, Fructuoso & Hierro, Luis Ángel, 2019. "Transmission of monetary policy in the US and EU in times of expansion and crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 763-783.
    22. Avalos, Fernando & Mamatzakis, Emmanuel, 2023. "Is bank resilience affected by unconventional monetary policy in the Euro area?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    23. Tillmann, Peter, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policy and the spillovers to emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 136-156.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian mixed frequency svar; Financial spillovers; International transmission; Unconventional monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10856. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.