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Does austerity pay off?

Author

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  • Müller, Gernot
  • Pfeifer, Johannes
  • Born, Benjamin
Abstract
We ask whether cuts of government consumption lower or raise the sovereign default premium. To address this question, we set up a new data set for 38 emerging and advanced economies which contains quarterly time-series observations for sovereign default premia, government consumption, and output. We find that whether austerity pays off depends on a) initial conditions and b) the time-horizon under consideration. Spending cuts in times of fiscal stress raise default premia, but lower premia in benign times. These findings pertain to the short run. Austerity always pays off in the long run, but particularly so if initial conditions are bad.

Suggested Citation

  • Müller, Gernot & Pfeifer, Johannes & Born, Benjamin, 2015. "Does austerity pay off?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10425, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10425
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    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Austerity; Sovereign risk; Default premium; Local projections; Panel var; Fiscal stress;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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